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Energy security and the search for new options

M.R. Srinivasan

Efforts have to be stepped up to leverage emerging technologies to tap new and existing sources of energy better.

PRESIDENT A.P.J. Abdul Kalam in his address to the nation on the eve of Independence Day 2005, and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, in his address from the Red Fort on August 15, 2005, referred extensively to the question of India securing adequate energy supplies, both in the near term and the long term, to support an economic growth rate of about 8 per cent per annum. They must have been exercised over petroleum prices shooting up. These have gone past $60 per barrel and were even touching $70. Bookmakers are reported to have called for bets as to when the price per barrel will touch $100!

During 2002-03, of the total primary energy consumed, 71 per cent came from commercial sources, namely coal, lignite, oil, gas, hydel, nuclear, wind, and solar photo-voltaics. The remaining 29 per cent came from non-commercial sources, namely firewood, agricultural wastes, and animal dung. Of the total primary commercial energy consumed in 2002-03, coal and lignite accounted for 47.5 per cent, petroleum 35.9 per cent, natural gas 8.8 per cent, hydel 5.8 per cent, nuclear 1.8 per cent, and renewables 0.2 per cent. In the case of coal and lignite, 92 per cent was internally produced and imports accounted for 8 per cent. By contrast, in the case of petroleum, imports accounted for 71 per cent and internal production was 29 per cent.

India has coal reserves of about 250 billion tonnes but experts in the field of coal extraction project that only some 40 billion tonnes will be recoverable. India is the third largest producer of coal, behind China and the United States, producing some 360 million tonnes at present. The demand for coal is rising at about 4.5 per cent per annum. A big impediment to increasing production of coal is that the mining areas are largely located in the last remaining forests of the country. Coking coal has been imported for many years and now pressure is building to import power grade coal from Australia, South Africa, Indonesia, and elsewhere. Augmentation of port facilities to import some 100 million tonnes in five to 10 years would be necessary. India has done very little to acquire coal mines in other countries in the neighbourhood, although this idea was promoted by the late Biju Patnaik in the 1970s. With the steep hike in petroleum prices, international coal prices will also rise and it will be in India's interest to acquire mines in friendly countries.

The demand for petroleum has been estimated to be 155 million tonnes in 2006-07 and 200 million tonnes in 2010-11. The past growth in demand was about 6 per cent per annum; this could increase to 7 to 8 per cent per annum if the economy were to grow faster. Most of this increase in demand will have to be met from imports, unless new oil reserves are located, onshore and offshore, in the next one or two decades. Increasing imports of petroleum, in a regime of ever increasing prices, will put a severe strain on balance of payments. We cannot be sanguine about the continuing instability in Iraq and possible destabilisation in Iran and prospects of upheaval in the power structure in Saudi Arabia. All these factors will materially affect India's ability to import the needed petroleum to fuel its economy.

Gas has been the fastest-growing segment of the energy market all over the world. In India, the use of gas has been constrained by its availability, mostly in Gujarat and in the Bombay High fields. Recent discoveries of gas in the Krishna-Godavari basin and in western India by Reliance Industries, ONGC, and other players are timely and welcome. If pipelines across Pakistan become a reality, India could access gas from Iran and Turkmenistan. It remains to be seen if the political, economic, and security conditions for realising these supplies will happen any time soon. There is also gas available in Myanmar and Bangladesh, which India would like to access but again the troubled relations with Bangladesh are an impediment.

In recent years, ONGC has been investing in oil and gas fields in other countries through its overseas subsidiary. It has had success in Russia and Sudan. It is trying to acquire oil and gas fields in Kazakhstan in a joint venture. The Government must encourage both the public sector and the private sector to explore these possibilities on a priority basis.

New source

A new hydrocarbon on the horizon is `gas hydrate', which is methane entrapped in ice and found in some deep ocean areas. As of now, no one has found a way to exploit this resource, though the U.S., Russia, Japan, and some other countries are pursuing the technologies to harness it. Initial studies by the National Institute of Oceanography, Goa, indicate that deep ocean areas around the Indian coast may contain substantial amounts of gas hydrates. If viable technologies for deep-ocean drilling and extracting methane become available, India could hit a bonanza in energy supplies. While the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas and its agencies are aware of this prospect, an organisation on the lines of the Atomic Energy Commission may be needed to execute this work in full cooperation with Indian industry.

A supplement to our gas supplies can come from coal-bed methane. Many of the coal seams in eastern India seem to have large quantities of methane entrapped in them. Some efforts have been mounted to exploit this resource and hopefully technical and economically viable solutions will be found. There has been interest in in situ gassification of coals in deep seams, which may be uneconomical to mine. Past efforts appeared uneconomical; however the impact of new technologies needs to be assessed and a more optimistic prognosis may be possible.

The really big energy resource India has is its thorium-bearing beach sands. If a technology for utilising thorium as nuclear fuel is found, it can give the country the equivalent of about 10 times our coal reserves. This is the reason why Homi Bhabha envisaged the three-stage nuclear energy programme. The first stage would consist of natural uranium reactors, which produce plutonium in the spent nuclear fuel. The plutonium would enable launching of the fast breeder reactors, which in addition to producing power would produce more plutonium or uranium-233, if thorium were placed in the blanket of fast reactors. Uranium-233 can then be used to build reactors working on the Uranium-233-Thorium fuel cycle.

In the 50 years of comprehensive technology development in the nuclear field, an impressive infrastructure of R & D laboratories, nuclear power reactors, and industrial facilities has been built up. However due to the embargoes placed by the nuclear-advanced countries, the present nuclear power capacity is a modest 3000MW. A number of power units including the 500MW prototype fast breeder reactor are now under construction.

The new nuclear understanding reached between the U.S. and India, if implemented imaginatively, could enable India to build a number of light water reactors, using imported enriched uranium. Thus large-scale use of nuclear energy can commence even before the fast breeder reactors and thorium-burning systems become available. The Indo-U.S. agreement also foresees India joining the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor project and Generation-4 reactor development. Some of the Generation-4 reactors are expected to be particularly suitable for production of hydrogen, which is likely to replace petroleum derivatives in the road transport vehicles, in the future.

Significant progress has been achieved in the field of renewable energy. About 3600MW of wind power has been installed, though the turbines can operate at a maximum capacity factor of 30 per cent based on prevalence of wind. Denmark is developing a 2MW offshore wind turbine. We could adopt these along the seacoast, in addition to wind generators at onshore sites of good potential. Photo-voltaics are being used for small power sources in isolated locations. Larger solar power modules are also becoming cost effective. Hydropower needs to be pursued vigorously with due concern for rehabilitation of displaced persons. Bio-diesel is another option using jatropha and other non-edible oilseeds. Conversion of coal to oil, once again, appears to be economical, with the prevailing high petroleum prices. Solar water heating and solar cookers, especially in rural areas, must be promoted vigorously.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has now set up an energy coordinating body headed by himself and with Ministers of the various energy Ministries and the Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission, as members. This is a timely initiative. The coordinating body should also include some acknowledged energy experts, with hands on experience, and some representatives of users of energy services, from outside the government. These outside experts will be able to provide a broader perspective of the issues involved and the impact of various solutions.

The size of the energy industries in India is indeed enormous and the total number of engineers and technologists deployed is very large. However, except in the area of nuclear energy, research and development activities have been rather modest both in scope and impact. Keeping in mind various new developments, such as clean coal technologies, carbon sequestration, fuel cells, hydrogen, super-conductivity, magnetic levitation, harassing energy from hot rocks, and so on, national level planning and execution of energy-related R & D, both in the public and private sectors, is essential. The Prime Minister's energy coordinating body should address this task also on a continuing basis.

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