Opinion - Editorials   

A flawed constitution fans disaffection

It might not matter at the moment that Sunni representatives on the committee mandated to draw up Iraq's new constitution rejected the final draft. They are not members of parliament while the Kurd and Shia parties have enough strength in the legislature to ensure a two-third majority support for it. In fact, these parties appear to treat the parliamentary vote as a mere formality since they have already started preparing for the referendum scheduled for October 15. Sunni objections could matter a great deal at that stage. The transitional law, which currently serves as the governing charter, stipulates that the constitution will not come into effect if two-thirds of the voters in three of Iraq's 18 provinces reject it. The Sunnis make up the majority of the population in four provinces. It is not clear whether this community commands a two-third share of the vote in two of these provinces. However, the protagonists of the constitution may have problems in Baghdad as well. Secular forces and disaffected Shias in the capital, which is a separate province, are also likely to cast a negative vote in the referendum. The thread that holds these otherwise disparate elements together in their opposition to the draft constitution is the fear that they might be deprived of their due share of oil revenues if the proposed dispensation comes into effect. With the country's oilfields located in regions populated by Shias and Kurds, the people of Baghdad and Sunni-dominated areas want a strong central authority that could ensure fair distribution of the national wealth. Instead, the draft grants extensive autonomy to the provinces and even permits two or more of them to merge and become powerful sub-national entities. Iraq has been pushed to the brink of disintegration and chaos. This deplorable state of affairs would not have come about if the United States had not carried out its outrageous invasion and occupation of Iraq.

Even if the opponents of the draft constitution are unable to prevent its adoption, their disaffection will haunt the United States, and the Iraqi government it props up. The Bush administration and its local surrogate had hoped that the raging insurgency, supported mainly by the Sunnis, would die down once the community's representatives accepted the draft. Their assumption appears unsound since the national resistance movement did not slacken when the constitution-making exercise was on. They now have to come to terms with the reality that the Sunnis have an additional cause for grievance and are also beginning to attract new allies. The Sunnis and others are not likely to meekly surrender their rights even if they are unable to rally sufficient negative votes. If the opponents of the draft law achieve their objective, a new constituent assembly will have to be elected. While the Sunnis had boycotted the last election, there are indications that they are unlikely to do so in the next round. In that event, the Shias and Kurds will lose the brute majority they have in the existing legislature. However, much of this is in the realm of theory. What appears far more certain is that the insurgency will intensify in the coming months.

Printer friendly page  
Send this article to Friends by E-Mail

Stories in this Section

A flawed constitution fans disaffection
A balanced scorecard
Energy security and the search for new options
The new Vietnam at sixty
Pakistan's religious parties losing ground?
Elections: don't expect too much
Climate change adds to Africa's woes
Hypocrisy to the fore
The Chidambaram issue
Disappointing
Uncharitable
Uses of homeopathy
Nuclear issue: "India is a unique case"

Copyright © 2005, The Hindu. Republication or redissemination of the contents of this screen are expressly prohibited without the written consent of The Hindu