NEW DELHI: Model simulations indicate a marked increase in rainfall as well as temperature over India this century. While there are substantial spatial differences in projected rainfall changes, the maximum expected increase in rainfall — 10-30 per cent — is expected over Central India.

This is a major finding of an India-U.K. Programme on Impacts of Climate Change in India, released here on Thursday by Union Environment and Forest Minister A. Raja and U.K. Minister of State for Trade Ian Pearson.

According to the study, warming is projected to be widespread over the country and relatively more pronounced over the northern parts with temperatures likely to increase by 3 to 4 degrees centigrade towards the end of the century.

Impact on rain-fed crops

In the agriculture sector, the major impacts of climate change will be on rain-fed or un-irrigated crops that account for nearly 60 per cent of the cropland area. Also, most the biomes in India seem to be highly vulnerable to the projected change in climate in a relatively short span of 50 years that would lead to reduction in rice and wheat yields. About 70 per cent of the vegetation is likely to find itself less optimally adapted to its existing location, making it more vulnerable to the adverse climate conditions as well as to the biotic stresses. Biodiversity is likely to be adversely impacted due to this, the study warns.

Preliminary projections on estimation of sea level changes and occurrence of cyclones and storm surges indicate mean sea level rise to be slightly less than 1 mm a year for most stations along the Indian coast, greater numbers of high surges and increased occurrences of cyclones in post-monsoon period along with increased maximum wind speed. Transmission of malaria is projected to increase with climate change with shifts from State to State depending on the arrival of the monsoon.

The Union Environment and Forest Ministry and the U.K. Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) jointly undertook this three-year research programme to ascertain the impact of climate change on India.

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