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Mubarak and his political shell game

There was never any doubt that Egypt's President, Hosni Mubarak, would handily win yet another six-year term in office. Mr. Mubarak did not belie expectations as he romped home with over 80 per cent of the votes cast in the September 7 election. While critics might scoff at the ease with which rulers in the Arab world get re-elected, the Egyptian leader did depart from past practice this time in some respects. This was the first multi-candidate election in the country's political history; the Opposition was allowed to criticise the government in `unprecedented' fashion; and the President hit the campaign trail for the first time ever. These changes might have been marginal, even cosmetic, but the Egyptians at least got a whiff of democratic debate. On election day, henchmen of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) do not seem to have gone to accustomed lengths to intimidate voters. That was about all that could be noted on the positive side. The NDP is the only party with a countrywide reach. It is also so deeply embedded in the power structure that there is hardly a distinction between party and government. The Opposition parties got just 19 days to campaign and their statements were blacked out of the mainly government-owned newspapers. They also alleged that ruling party workers had violated the electoral law by entering polling booths at will. Their complaints received short shrift from the Election Commission. Mr. Mubarak is unlikely to be troubled by the noises that might be made by his domestic and foreign critics as he begins his fifth — decidedly authoritarian — term in office.

The Egyptian establishment certainly has cause for concern as it looks to the future. Its legitimacy is in question since less than 30 per cent of the electorate bothered to turn up at the polling stations. The low turnout might also indicate that the masses who are undergoing severe economic hardship have lost faith in the system altogether. A little more than a decade ago, widespread frustration at the lack of systemic change and progress led to the rise of a powerful Islamist movement. The Mubarak Government crushed that movement but its embers have not died out. At present, the people of the Arab world are once again turning against rulers unwilling to oppose the policies the United States is implementing in the region. They do not care much for the Bush administration claim of promoting democracy. Another factor complicates the task of democratising the Arab world. It is quite conceivable that Islamists, who, in different countries, have frequently demonstrated a capacity for political organisation superior to that of rival movements, will come to power if truly democratic systems were to be established. Since such an outcome would be as unacceptable to Washington as it is to Cairo, President Mubarak has all the incentive to continue with his political shell game.

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