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Bihar Assembly election, Mark II

Here is another record that will delight Bihar watchers: it is the first State in India's electoral history to go to the polls twice in the same year. Elections were held in three phases to the Bihar Assembly in February 2005. With the Election Commission announcing a four-phase election starting October 18, political parties are set to return to the battlefield to resume a fight that produced no victor last time. Another month-long exercise cannot be to the liking of lukewarm voters. At 46.5 per cent, the February 2005 turnout was the lowest in 43 years. To further dampen the mood, the new schedule coincides with the Hindu and Muslim festival season. So will Election 2005 Mark II be any different from its predecessor? It seems much too early for prediction but the results of the last election, and subsequent changes in ground equations, do provide some clues to how the cookie might crumble. February 2005 was an irretrievable mess, with previous alliances coming unstuck; the resulting "free for all," to quote Lalu Prasad, caused the vote to fragment. In more than 50 constituencies, the winner polled less than 30 per cent of the vote; in quite a few, the victor secured less than the preceding election's runner-up. On paper, the contest was among three broad alliances — the Rashtriya Janata Dal-Left parties, the Congress-Lok Janashakti Party, and the Janata Dal (United)-Bharatiya Janata Party. In practice, there was no agreement between the Communist Party of India and the RJD. Offered a pittance by Lalu Prasad, the Congress reached out to his bete noir, Ram Vilas Paswan, and then muddied the waters by claiming to be in partnership with the RJD simultaneously.

Much water has flowed down the Ganga and the Son over these seven months. The vote base of the LJP has virtually collapsed. The BJP unit in the State is better off but could be in real trouble, considering the power struggle raging in the national organisation. That the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh is in the eye of this storm does not help the BJP, given the JD(U)'s proclaimed aversion to Jhandewalan. Indeed, Nitish Kumar is worried that an RSS-driven BJP might push the backward caste vote towards the RJD. An important question is: who will benefit from the erosion in the LJP's vote base? Twenty-two of the party's 29 MLAs won by defeating the RJD, and this would suggest an advantage for Mr. Prasad. However, it must be remembered that 13 of the 29 were defectors, and the question is whether they will carry their base vote with them. With Mr. Paswan severely disadvantaged and the RJD and the Congress apparently keen on correcting past mistakes, the "secular vote" looks less likely to fragment. With only 10 seats and a five per cent vote, the Congress cannot afford major ambition; nor can Mr. Prasad afford to alienate a partner. Arithmetic, however, is not everything. The RJD is up against its record in office, the Buta Singh tenure, and Nitish Kumar's seemingly boundless energy.

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