Opinion - News Analysis   

German election: Bush may be disappointed

Simon Tisdall

The White House's hopes about Angela Merkel could be dashed.

ANGELA MERKEL, tipped to become Germany's first woman Chancellor, is being courted by a growing line of foreign suitors. Tony Blair sought her out during a fleeting visit to Berlin in June. France's presidential hopeful, Nicolas Sarkozy, welcomed her to Paris. And the White House hopes a new chapter is about to begin. But to varying degrees, all may be disappointed.

At first glance, a victory for Ms. Merkel's Conservatives holds obvious attractions for the Bush administration. Relations reached a post-war low after Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder opposed the Iraq war, and have struggled to recover. When Wolfgang Schauble, Ms. Merkel's foreign policy adviser, visited Washington recently, he received red-carpet treatment, including 45 minutes of "face time" with President George W. Bush. "We are interested in a strong United States and in American leadership," Mr. Schauble said afterwards. "If we disagree, we will do so on a basis of partnership."

But although the CDU calls for a "new start" in U.S.-German relations, Ms. Merkel would be no pushover, said Katinka Barysch of the Centre for European Reform. "Merkel will go as far as she can but she can't go overboard. Public opinion is a factor and Bush is very unpopular in Germany. She may have to wait for a new U.S. President."

Clear policy differences are likely to persist. German backing for the U.N.'s international criminal court, for lifting the EU's arms embargo on China, and Ms. Merkel's opposition to full EU membership talks with Turkey all potentially put her at odds with Washington.

Her anti-Turkish stance has gone down well in France where the reform-minded Mr. Sarkozy hopes to win Ms. Merkel's backing for his idea of an expanded core group of leading EU nations. In contrast, President Jacques Chirac will want to replicate the Franco-German axis that he forged with Mr. Schroeder on EU budget, agricultural, and multilateral policy issues. Both men could be politely rebuffed, Ms. Barysch suggested. "Merkel is less likely to cosy up to the French and will be closer to Blair and the U.K. on some issues ... It's about recovering Germany's traditional balancing function within Europe and in the transatlantic relationship. Germans like France, they like the social market, they admire its stand on Iraq. But she knows she has to disentangle herself from the French embrace."

Constanze Stelzenmuller of the German Marshall Fund in Berlin said Ms. Merkel appeared receptive to British arguments about improved EU competitiveness and deregulation: "She has dropped rather heavy hints that she is sympathetic to CAP [common agricultural policy] reform. She may instinctively be more of an economic liberal than she cares to let on." But that did not mean she would suddenly adopt Mr. Blair's way of thinking.

Like any aspiring leader, Ms. Merkel will ultimately face hard choices. But rather than make dramatic foreign commitments during a tight election race, she is keeping her options open. — © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2004

Printer friendly page  
Send this article to Friends by E-Mail

Stories in this Section

Testing commitment to multipolarity
End of Australia's cricket hegemony
C.N. Annadurai's mission incomplete
The farmer and the festival lights
Should the police role be expanded further?
German election: Bush may be disappointed
U.S. causing Iran nuclear crisis
Differences are healthy
Sarabjit's case
Detrimental
A misplaced charge

Copyright © 2005, The Hindu. Republication or redissemination of the contents of this screen are expressly prohibited without the written consent of The Hindu