International   

German Chancellor elections could be heading for dead heat

Luke Harding

Schroeder may retain power at the head of a new coalition

BERLIN: Germany's general election appears to be heading towards a dead heat, amid growing speculation that Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder could try to cling on to power at the head of a new coalition.

According to the latest poll for Hamburg's electoral research institute, Mr. Schroder's Social Democrats together with the Green and Left parties are likely to win 305 seats — a majority of just one. Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) and her coalition ally, the liberal Free Democrats (FDP), will end up with 301 seats, the poll suggests.

Most experts had predicted that the CDU and SDP would be forced into a ``grand coalition'' — led by Mrs. Merkel, who next week would become the first woman Chancellor. However, there was growing speculation that if Mrs. Merkel fails to win an outright majority Mr. Schroeder might be able to persuade the Free Democrats to switch sides. This would ensure that he remained Chancellor at the head of a so-called ``traffic light'' coalition — named after the three parties' colours — made up of the SDP, Greens and the FDP.

Deft surprise

``There is one man who on election night — assuming he's the same person who we have admired and marvelled at numerous times — could spring a deft surprise: `Gerhard Schroeder,'" Franz Walter, a political expert, wrote in the Tageszeitung newspaper. ``The only way for the Chancellor to survive, or even to triumph, is as the head of this red-green-yellow coalition. The stage is now set for the great machiavellian.''

The FDP's leader, Guido Westerwelle, has categorically refused any deal with the Chancellor. But the Liberals have a history of switching sides. In 1982 they brought down the Social Democrat government of Helmut Schmidt to form a new alliance with Helmut Kohl. Several leading Social Democrats, including Kurt Beck, Minister-president of Rheinland-Pfalz, on Wednesday said such a coalition should not be ruled out. If the FDP refused to join the party would spend the next four years in Opposition, Mr. Beck pointed out.

With three days to go until the poll both, Mrs. Merkel and Mr. Schroeder on Wednesday ruled out a grand coalition between their parties. Dismissing speculation that he would do a deal with the Left party as ``absurd,'' Mr. Schroeder said his aim was for the SPD to be the strongest party.

``The trend is upward. There is a lot of movement in the polls,'' he said.

Against all expectations, Mr. Schroeder has staged a remarkable recovery over the past 10 days, largely thanks to a campaign against Mrs. Merkel's shadow finance minister, Paul Kirchhof. Her 21-point lead in the polls has been whittled away amid a series of gaffes, including a promise to increase valued added tax and a party leader's remarks about East Germans. — © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2004

Printer friendly page  
Send this article to Friends by E-Mail

Stories in this Section

Ranil to adopt "unifying policies": UNP
Manmohan makes a pitch for democracy
31 killed in Iraq blasts
Foreigners held in U.K. crackdown
Aceh peace process begins
German Chancellor elections could be heading for dead heat
U.K. arms firm paid £1 million to Pinochet
Harry, birthday boy, does some plain talking
U.N. suffers from democracy deficit: Manmohan
Musharraf for just solution
Not a setback to peace: Saran
Text of Joint Statement
Indian diplomat's wife manhandled
400 Indians in Dubai jail

Copyright © 2005, The Hindu. Republication or redissemination of the contents of this screen are expressly prohibited without the written consent of The Hindu