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Germany drifting towards a grand coalition?

Vaiju Naravane

Angela Merkel, Gerhard Schroeder slug it out in the last two days of campaigning.

THE BEACH Bar near Berlin's new Parliament building is packed with people. Journalists, parliamentary secretaries, bureaucrats, and other paper pushers exchange election gossip over a glass of beer. And not any beer. In a campaign called "Vote with your Throat" patrons are asked to choose the beer in line with their political inclinations — Merkel or Schroeder.

It's a sodden day outside with a constant lazy drizzle and the large sandpit housing the circus-tented bar that gives the watering hole its name looks wet and muddy. In the end the number of bottles sold in the name of each candidate will be totalled up to see whether patrons have been able to accurately predict who is going to carry the day on Sunday, when Germany goes to the polls in one of the country's most crucial votes.

In the final two days before the vote, Conservative Angela Merkel and outgoing Social Democratic Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder have been slugging it out.

In separate rallies in Nuremberg and Mainz on Thursday, both leaders ceaselessly attacked each other. Ms. Merkel flatly told her supporters that Mr. Schroeder in seven years of rule had failed to deliver. Mr. Schroeder's message was that voting for Ms. Merkel would amount to opening the door to ruthless laissez faire capitalism.

Ms. Merkel's early lead has been seriously eroded and presumptions that she would be able to form an all-Right government with the small business-friendly Free democrats or FDP party appear to be erroneous. The Christian Democrats CDU's lead of 11 points has been steadily reduced and it is unlikely that the CDU-FDP combine will be able to get the minimum 48.5 per cent of the vote required to form a government.

Opinion polls show that at least a third of the voters are still undecided. "I am still confused and wondering and no one can say I am an ignorant, uninformed voter," schoolteacher Christina Krug, who voted CDU for the local candidate and Green for the proportional vote, told The Hindu . According to the electoral law, voters cast two ballots. They vote once for the candidate of their choice in their local constituency and a second time for their preferred party list. A party has to obtain a minimum of five per cent of the vote in order to enter Parliament.

The race is so close that Ms. Merkel has changed her campaigning plans and will now attend the Frankfurt Motor Show on Saturday to coincide with Mr. Schroeder's speech in the country's financial capital. While polls credit Ms. Merkel's CDU-CSU alliance with the most votes for any single political party or grouping, they also suggest she might have to form a coalition with the SPD, which is likely to come in second.

Theoretically, the SPD, the Green Party, and the Left Party made up of SPD dissidents and the reformed Communists from the former East Germany could make up a government. But this possibility has been ruled out by Mr. Schroeder who cannot contemplate ruling with his political nemesis and arch rival Oskar Lafontaine, one of the SPD dissidents who founded the Left Party. With the Left sure to make a strong showing in former East Germany and a substantial number of Turkish voters still to make up their minds, the likelihood of Ms. Merkel slipping further is a distinct possibility.

If the polls are to be believed, Germany is slowly drifting towards a grand coalition between the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats. If that were to happen, Mr. Schroeder would of course step down and Ms. Merkel would become the next Chancellor. However, she will be significantly hampered and the SPD will demand major portfolios in return for its support. Business leaders say such a situation would gridlock the decision making process and prove disastrous for Germany.

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