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The monsoon — still unpredictable

Monsoons are notoriously capricious but the course this year's monsoon charted had more than the usual twists and turns. First, it got off to an inauspicious start by arriving late and then raining half-heartedly. Just as the doomsayers had girded their loins and got down to lamenting yet another drought in the making, the monsoon revived. It rained so heavily in the latter half of June that vast areas of Gujarat were flooded. The nationwide deficit, which had soared to 59 per cent, dropped to 15 per cent by the end of June. Then it was the turn of meteorologists to worry about the prospects of rain in July because that month typically accounts for close to one-third of the monsoon rainfall. A poor July, responsible for the drought of 2002, was also a major factor in last year's drought. This year, however, the rain in July was so plentiful and widespread that the June deficit was more than made up. That month saw, too, a few hours of such torrential rain in and around Mumbai (on July 26) that it set a new one-day record. Then, abruptly, the monsoon weakened in August, with the rains falling short nationally by about 20 per cent for that month.

Just as the spectre of drought hove into view again, the monsoon got its second wind. It rained to such purpose in September that the season ended with a deficit of just one per cent. Despite the inevitable disparities in the way rainfall was distributed geographically and over time, it has been a good monsoon. Much of the country has got normal rain, and Karnataka, Maharashtra, and Gujarat have received far more than they usually do. Only Bihar, Jharkhand, and the Northeastern States have received substantially less than their usual quota. By contrast during 2002, which saw one of the worst droughts in a hundred years, over 60 per cent of the meteorological districts in the country received below normal rainfall. This year, thanks to ample rains, the store of water in the country's major reservoirs is 20 per cent more than the 10-year average. The India Meteorological Department (IMD), which was lambasted for failing to foretell the droughts of 2002 and 2004, can afford to smile in self-satisfaction this year. Its prediction issued in April that the monsoon would see a rainfall deficit of only two per cent has pretty much hit the bull's eye. But does that mean the IMD now has a reliable method of forecasting the monsoon's outcome? Alas, no. Statistically, anyone predicting a normal monsoon (when the rainfall is within 10 per cent of the long-term average) has a 70 per cent chance of turning out right. The acid test for any forecasting methodology will be how good it is in predicting, accurately and reliably, the drought years (which have occurred just 16 per cent of the time in the last 130-odd years) as well as years of excess rainfall (14 per cent). That standard of reliability is yet to be achieved.

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