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Murder & militancy in a shaken State

In carrying out attacks that resulted in the death of a State Minister and several others even as the Government of Jammu and Kashmir was trying to cope with the fallout of the October 8 earthquake, the terrorist groups have once again demonstrated their lack of humanity. The outfit that struck a high-security residential complex in Srinagar on October 18 did not appear to bear any particular animus towards the Minister of State for Education, Ghulam Nabi Lone. It killed the Minister after it was thwarted in its attempt to assassinate the intrepid Secretary of the State Committee of the Communist Party of India (Marxist), Yusuf Ali Tarigami. The Srinagar attack and the murder of another CPI(M) leader in Pahalgam the same day indicate that the terrorist groups are sticking to the tactical approach they have adopted over the past several months. They struck virtually every day against leaders and members of political parties that subscribed to the constitutional scheme. Post-earthquake, the United Jehadi Council announced a suspension of militant activity but it appears to have changed its mind for several reasons. Senior officials of the security forces expressed the view that the earthquake might have inflicted severe damage on the militant outfits. The terrorists apparently believed they needed to send a strong message to the contrary. They would also be aware that the Indian Army has made some headway in winning the hearts and minds of the Kashmiri people by providing prompt and efficient humanitarian assistance to earthquake victims. In a tactical situation where popular support can make a significant difference, the militants evidently wanted to arrest the process of reconciliation between the people and the security forces. However, their actions are likely to alienate ordinary people.

While the latest attacks demonstrate that secessionist violence has not come to an end, there does appear to have been a decline in the frequency of terrorist attacks. However, there is no guarantee this trend will continue. Islamabad has taken a serious view of New Delhi's stand that the composite dialogue cannot make progress so long as terrorism continues. It is under pressure on several fronts to dismantle the infrastructure of the militant outfits. However, there are indications that the militant groups active in Kashmir continue to take guidance and instructions from handlers across the Line of Control. Tactical changes made recently by the security forces, especially the transfer of responsibility for urban counter-terrorism operations from the Border Security Force to the Central Reserve Police Force, have provided some space to the militants. The CRPF, which does not possess the kind of armaments or the intelligence resources the BSF does, will be at a disadvantage in the transitional phase. That might cause a spike in militant activity in the short term.

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