THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The stakes are high for all the major political contenders, including the three rivals, who are in the fray for the November 19 byelection to the Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha constituency.

The outcome of the recent panchayat elections has in a way set a trend for the byelections caused by the death of the CPI leader P. K. Vasudevan Nair.

Given the rather incontrovertible show of the Left Democratic Front in the local bodies election, the general impression is that the LDF would find the going comparatively easier.

But the political configuration in this constituency is rather disturbing, making an off-the-cuff prediction well nigh impossible.

The CPI has fielded its trusted comrade Pannian Ravindran to defend the constituency, while the Congress has given the ticket once again to V. S. Siva Kumar.

For the first time since 1991, O. Rajagopal will not be in the fray and his place has been taken by the former BJP state president C. K. Padmanabhan.

Onus on LDF

The battle lines have been clearly drawn and the onus is on the LDF to prove that the series of electoral victories it notched up in the 18 months was not a flash in the pan.

The Thiruvananthapuram byelection will be significant for two major developments.

The bipolar coalition system is still in tact, contrary to expectations of a political realignment after the local bodies elections.

The allegations and counter-allegations of the BJP links traded between the LDF and the UDF has virtually inducted insularity in Kerala politics.

As far as the CPI is concerned, it has succeeded in ensuring that the contest will be political. It has resisted the proposal to field a LDF-supported independent and even disregarded the usual electoral calculations in selecting its candidate.

With the Democratic Indira Congress (Karunakaran) knocking on the LDF doors for an entry, the CPI did not want to lose its claim on the seat.

Natural choice

Mr. Ravindran emerged the natural choice for the seat and is the best bet for the CPI to retain the seat. Mr. Ravindran has by now established his familiarity with the electorate in this constituency, reaching out to television audience across the State as a political debator.

Personal prestige

For Siva Kumar, the byelection has become a matter of personal prestige. Despite the resounding defeat in the last elections, Siva Kumar has admittedly not lost touch with the constituency.

He will have to prove that his defeat last time was on account of the peculiar political situation that prevailed at that time.

The Congress has reposed its confidence in him to achieve a morale boosting victory in the run-up to the Assembly elections.

Mr. Siva Kumar has also been duly rewarded for his last-minute decision not to join Mr. Karunakaran in his split and remain in the Congress.

Uphill battle

C. K. Padmanabhan will have to ensure that the growing BJP influence in the capital constituency is still in tact.

In the last elections, the BJP candidate O. Rajagopal had notched up the best-ever show for his party.

He was able to do so owing to the fact that he was a Union Minister and the BJP was tipped to return to power.

He made inroads into the traditional UDF voter base, carrying larger appeal among the Nair community which has a strong presence in several Assembly segments.

Mr. Padmanabhan will not have such a benefit and will have to bank on the wider ties he established with several segments in society during his tenure as BJP State president.

Crucial for DIC(K)

The byelection is very important for the DIC (K) even though it is not in the electoral fray. It has refrained from entering into any disputes with the LDF leadership since the local bodies elections, being content with the accommodation it has been given in the panchayats.

Mr. Karunakaran seems to be following the one-step-backwards-two- steps-forward dictum in his relations with the CPI(M) and the LDF.

He has taken it a matter of prestige to defeat Mr. Siva Kumar for ditching him in the eleventh hour.

But it is very important for him to gain entry into the LDF without upsetting the current structure.

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