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Minorities hold the key

V.S. Sambandan

Low Tamil turnout likely following LTTE's "pamphlet"

HAMBANTOTA (Sri Lanka): As Sri Lanka's polarised presidential election campaign approaches its end, the prospects of Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse and Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe largely depend on the votes of the Tamil and Muslim minorities.

"If the Tamil people vote, then Mr. Wickremesinghe can win. If not it will be Mr. Rajapakse who will win," said P.L. Pradipa, a Sinhalese-Buddhist in the Prime Minister's constituency Hambantota, summing up a dominant view.

As the outcome would also determine if Sri Lanka stays on the path leading to power sharing with the minorities or firmly entrenches itself as a unitary state, the largest stakeholders in the fifth presidential poll are the two minorities from the northern and eastern districts.

According to reports from the northern Jaffna town, a low Tamil turnout is on the cards, particularly after a pamphlet was issued — reportedly by an LTTE front organisation — asking voters to observe the polling day, November 17, as a `Black Day."

Supporters of Mr. Rajapakse say the LTTE could be keeping its options open. While low turnout is possible in the Tamil-majority northern districts, a close fight is on the cards in the ethnically-mixed eastern districts.

"It is really 50-50. Both candidates have a fair chance," an eastern Muslim voter said, summing up their dilemma between Mr. Wickremesinghe, who ended the 20-year-old civil conflict, and Mr. Rajapakse, who promises security and respectability in finding a negotiated political settlement. This divided Muslim view reflects the state of the main Muslim party — the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC).

Caught between groups

Last year's revolt in the LTTE has also left its mark on the eastern Tamil vote. "We are caught between the two groups. [The former LTTE district military commander] Karuna's people want us to vote for Mahinda. If we say so, we may earn the wrath of the [LTTE Leader] Prabakaran's followers. We just keep quiet," a Tamil resident in the eastern Province said.

Development is a big priority in the northern and eastern districts where every town bears scars of destruction — either wrecked by the debilitating conflict or by last year's tsunami. The larger concerns have more to do with the big issue of who will end the conflict and ensure security.

"The main issue, not only for the Muslims here but for everybody all over the island, is apprehension of hardline Sinhala-Buddhist majoritarian nationalism based on the positions adopted by Mr. Rajapakse's allies," said M. Abdul Majid, who backs Mr. Wickremesinghe.

Recalling the 1956 "Sinhala Only" decision — one in a series of majoritarian moves that cascaded into a full-blown ethnic conflict — Mr. Majid said: "At that time it was only language, now it is Sinhala-Buddhism which is being advocated."

Mr. Majid, who fears that secularism is at stake in the poll, is confident of Mr. Wickremesinghe's victory.

Further up the coast, Akkaraipattu is a stronghold of the Prime Minister. "Yes, Mr. Wickremesinghe stopped the war, but he has not safeguarded Muslim interests.

Moreover, we are grateful to the Government [of Mr. Rajapakse] which gave us several jobs," a resident said.

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