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Could Warner win for the Democrats?

Edward Helmore— © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2004

Mark Warner, a bluegrass-loving former hi-tech venture capitalist, who is tipped to "do a Clinton."

A COMPANY of redcoat drummer boys signals the entry of Mark Warner, his Excellency, the Governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia, to Richmond's annual folk music festival. In this State, with its dense history, the drums echo defeat for the British forces, but not so for Mr. Warner, its popular outgoing Governor.

Last week, Mr. Warner emerged as a new darling of the Democratic party and the man some are saying has a chance of winning the Presidency in 2008. Compared with other hopefuls in the race, such as Hillary Clinton, he is a virtual unknown, but there is a discernible political excitement that this former hi-tech venture capitalist is the Democratic party's dream: a Southern Governor who appeals to moderate Southern Republicans.

The latest poll of Democrats shows that 41 per cent of party members presently back Ms. Clinton as their contender for the next election. John Edwards has 14 per cent of the support, John Kerry has 10 per cent, Senator Joe Biden has five per cent and Wesley Clark four (Rudy Giuliani and John McCain are the favoured candidates for the Republicans). But such early polls rarely predict the future accurately.

Mr. Warner himself is still guarded about his White House ambitions, but there is little doubt he will make a run for the nomination. The victory last week of his designated successor, Tim Kaine, was as much a blow to George W. Bush (who campaigned for Mr. Kaine's rival) as to Ms. Hillary Clinton, who many feel can never swing Republican states to Democrat. Mostly, the Virginian result reveals what politics professor Merle Black calls the "rather astonishing popularity of Mark Warner."

Four years ago, Mr. Warner won office by a margin of seven per cent in a State that's solidly Republican in Presidential elections. After one term as Governor (Virginia's limit) his approval rating is close to 80 per cent. He has shown fiscal responsibility, expanded healthcare, spent more on education and his administration frequently wins national awards for civic management. Mr. Warner is known as a political realist who seems to be able to speak beyond entrenched party positions. "My reason for plunging into politics is to try to turn the political debate from left-right to future-past," he said. "I think this country is tired of ideological zealots from both sides. We need to be able to talk without calling each other right-wing crazies or left-wing loonies."

Different message to voters

After years of ideological divisiveness in Washington, it is a message voters like. He is the guy who once sponsored a vehicle on the Nascar motor-racing circuit; he is an Ivy League graduate who can speak to the technology community; he is the self-made multi-millionaire who loves folk music and counts bluegrass legend Ralph Stanley as a personal friend.

As Mr. Warner says, it would be easy for a politician to adopt the mannerisms of Southern political appeal — the Nascar and the bluegrass affiliations, for instance — but it wouldn't wash.

"People in rural America may talk a little slower but they're plenty smart in figuring out if you're comfortable in your own skin. If I hadn't had the interest in improving the lot of rural Virginians, I would have been seen as a high-tech phoney from northern Virginia."

The political make-up of Virginia is not far removed from the U.S. itself: the northern half, rich with defence and hi-tech industry; the southern half — toward the Appalachian mountains — rural and poor, and susceptible to provocation on issues of "God, gays and guns."

Americans, he believes, would heed a call-to-arms — such as an aggressive environmental programme tied to achieving energy independence, and establishing a world-class education system. "I think people would be willing to give a little for a leader that inspires."

And Mr. Warner seems to inspire. Almost everyone he meets on this night-time tour in Richmond wishes him good luck in his 2008 bid.Mr. Warner is not a hi-tech nerd. Married, with teenage children, he displays an easy, open manner.

As Mr. Warner's name and record begin to be heard nationally, the pieces for a bid in 2008 are falling into place. Mr. Warner may still barely register in national polls, but neither did another Governor of a Southern State at this stage of the race 16 years ago — Bill Clinton.

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