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Putin reshuffles top officials

Vladimir Radyuhin

THE POWER reshuffle President Vladimir Putin announced on Monday may signal the start of Kremlin manoeuvres to ensure a smooth presidential succession in 2008 when Mr. Putin is to step down under the Russian Constitution.

The appointment of presidential chief-of-staff Dmitry Medvedev to the post of First Deputy Prime Minister paves the way for him to eventually replace Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov, whose lacklustre performance has triggered rumours about his imminent resignation.

Mr. Medvedev, a 40-year-old law expert, has been one of Mr. Putin's closest associates since both worked in the St. Petersburg Mayor's office in the early 1990s. He moved to Moscow in Mr. Putin's wake, working his way up to the key position of Head of the Presidential Administration in 2003. As First Deputy Prime Minister, Mr. Medvedev will be in charge of implementing the ambitious $4 billion presidential programmes to reform Russia's rundown healthcare, housing, education and agriculture. The new job will give him an opportunity to show his managerial skills and may groom him for the post of President.

Power Ministries

In another key appointment, Mr. Putin promoted Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov to the rank of Deputy Prime Minister. In the new job, Mr. Ivanov, another trusted confidant of Mr. Putin, will oversee the reform of Russia's defence industry to gear it to the needs of upgrading the country's armed forces. He is also likely to take over some of Mr. Putin's responsibilities for controlling the so-called "power ministries" — Defence, Interior and security agencies — to ensure overall political stability when power changes hands in the Kremlin.

Both Mr. Medvedev and Mr. Ivanov have long been on the list of potential candidates to succeed Mr. Putin. The appointment of the Tyumen Region Governor, Sergei Sobyanin, as Head of Presidential Administration has added another name to the list.

Mr. Sobyanin, 47, was elected Governor of the oil-rich region in January 2001 after sitting in the Federation Council, the upper chamber of the Russian Parliament, for several years. He has the reputation of being an efficient administrator and was one of the first regional leaders to promote local self-government, which is now being extended to all regions.

Political tradition

However, it may be premature at this stage to try and identify a likely successor to Mr. Putin. It is not in the Russian political tradition to place potential contenders to the Kremlin throne in the limelight at such an early point, so as not to make them targets of rival factions. The former President, Boris Yeltsin, began promoting Mr. Putin as his likely successor less than six months before he stepped down.

Mr. Putin has an even greater penchant for making surprise decisions and appointments. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that he may have somebody else in mind as his choice of future President.

Whatever Mr. Putin's ideas about his successor, the current reshuffle is linked to the problem of presidential succession. By strengthening the Government with such powerful figures as Mr. Medvedev and Mr. Ivanov, he has set the stage for a smooth transfer of power in 2008, while leaving himself the flexibility of choosing a suitable candidate.

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