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Fear affects Jaffna turnout

V.S. Sambandan

Most of the voters have moved out, says election official

— PHOTO: AP

ROADBLOCK: Fighters of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam man a road in Vavunathivu, Batticaloa district of eastern Sri Lanka, on Thursday.

COLOMBO: Fear factor loomed large in Sri Lanka's northern Jaffna electoral district, keeping lakhs of voters indoors during the fifth presidential poll on Thursday.

According to unofficial figures, just over 2,000 of the seven lakh registered voters turned up at the polling stations.

(However, according to the Commissioner of Elections, most of the voters had moved out of Jaffna and the "more realistic figure" was placed at around 4.5 lakh and about 2.5 lakh votes were cast in last year's parliamentary election.)

The fear factor

In effect, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) kept the voters away from the polling stations without firing a single shot.

The LTTE's stated reason for the "disinterest" was that there was no difference between the two main candidates — Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse and Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe.

"It is the fear factor. The Jaffna man, who has witnessed violence for decades, is quite protective about his life now. Nobody wants to risk his life," a northern Tamil political leader said. The LTTE "has also made the point that the Government's control over the Jaffna peninsula was merely nominal." Above all, "the symbolism that Jaffna evokes as the Tamil heartland is another key factor."

Referring to the poor turnout, leader of the anti-LTTE Eelam Peoples' Democratic Party (EPDP) Douglas Devananda said: "It is not a boycott, it is a ban" by the Tigers. The rebels, he said, "had already created psychological pressure before the polls through pamphlets and posters [through LTTE front organisations]. Even today the few people who set out were assaulted. The LTTE prevented the voters in the name of a boycott."

Mr. Devananda also said "the LTTE's threats reflected their apprehension that people may not follow their line. The LTTE has a right to call for a boycott and the people have the right to decide. But enforcing it through threats of violence is not acceptable to us."

It was widely accepted during the run-up to the poll that a low Tamil turnout would improve Mr. Rajapakse's chances of victory. "If I am allowed to vote, I will choose Ranil," a northern civilian said on Thursday morning.

Herein lies a critical question — did the LTTE want Mr. Wickremesinghe to lose?

In a recent interview to an international magazine — posted on the TamilNet website — LTTE's political wing leader S.P. Tamilselvan was quoted as saying Mr. Wickremesinghe "does not keep his promises" — an elaboration of the reason given by the Tigers when they pulled out from talks in 2003.

According to sources close to the LTTE, the rebel group stands to gain "on the international front" with Mr. Rajapakse's victory. This is largely because of his alliances with the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna and the Jathika Hela Urumaya which reflect a majoritarian viewpoint and the imminent reversal of the federalist path set by outgoing President Chandrika Kumaratunga.

The annual "Heroes Day" speech by LTTE leader V. Prabakaran, scheduled for November 27, is likely to set the tone for engagement with the next President.

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