THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: It is as though winning has become a habit for the Opposition Left Democratic Front (LDF) in Kerala. Beginning with the Ernakulam Lok Sabha byelection in 2003, Parliament election in 2004, byelections to the Azhikode and Koothuparamba Assembly constituencies in June this year, the local body elections in September and now the Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha byelection, the LDF has shown that it has returned to winning ways after the debacle in 2001. With the present victory, the LDF can hope to march Assembly election fray in 2006 with confidence.

The only election that the LDF has lost after the 2001 rout was the byelection from Thiruvalla Assembly constituency to fill the vacancy following the death of Kerala Congress (Mani) MLA, Mammen Mathai.

The UDF win there was not surprising given the fact that the UDF candidate was the late leader's wife and Thiruvalla is predominantly pro-UDF constituency. The rest of Kerala's election notebook is filled with tales of LDF victories.

Of these, the victory in Ernakulam was sweet because the LDF wrested it from the Congress. That in Azhikode and Koothpuramba were sweeter still because of the huge margins that the CPI(M) candidates secured.

The victory in the local body elections brought not just cheer but also loads of confidence into the LDF camp because of its scale. The resounding win in the Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha byelection is a double whammy because in one blow, the LDF has floored both the UDF and the BJP. It is doubly sweet also because it also blows away that thin cloud of uncertainty that had enveloped the LDF camp after the botched up no-confidence motion against the Oommen Chandy Government during the last session of the Assembly.

If there is a message in the bypoll outcome, it is that the anti-UDF sentiment that was strongly in evidence in the recently held local body elections is still sweeping the State. It could also mean that the LDF would be using the days to come to tighten the screws on the UDF dispensation.

The magnitude of the Opposition LDF's victory in the byelection is in keeping with the trend seen in the 2004 Lok Sabha election and the local body polls. Both were marked by emphatic assertion of the electors' preference for the LDF. In a way, it is in tune with a trend visible since 2001, that of verdicts going overwhelmingly in favour of one side or the other. The Opposition alliance has every reason to rejoice in the poll outcome because it has succeeded in going past the 50 per cent mark in this byelection, securing 51.40 per cent of the votes polled in Thiruvananthapuram, which is a pro-UDF constituency.

After the margin of victory, the most striking aspect of the byelection is the way the BJP hit the self-destruct mode. With the RSS adopting a lukewarm attitude towards BJP nominee C. K. Padmanabhan, those within the party appear to have managed things in such a way as to ensure that the result would be so deplorably poor that the current leadership of the party would have to answer quite a few questions. State BJP president P.S. Sreedharan Pillai's resignation might be one of those answers. The BJP in Kerala is now a party in total disarray.

The election result has come as a morale booster for the fourth major player in the bypoll fray, the Democratic Indira Congress (Karunakaran), as well. The party feels that it played a major part in the LDF win and hopes that the LDF leadership would reciprocate to it for its all-out efforts in the poll arena with a greater role in the LDF mechanism. LDF constituents and the Front State committee as a whole is yet to take up the question, but LDF convener Paloli Mohammed Kutty has said that a decision on the issue would be taken soon.

The magnitude and sweetness of its victory notwithstanding, LDF cannot overlook the fact that the UDF has only been defeated and not decimated. Its vote share even in this massive defeat is 41.63 per cent and, as its tally shows, its strongholds are still reasonably intact. The challenge before the LDF is to ensure that the votes that have gravitated towards it stays with it. Given its performance in the recent elections, the LDF has a good chance to do that with the 2006 Assembly elections, due in just about six months.

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