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Towards an American exit strategy in Iraq

Atul Aneja

The recent reconciliation conference in Cairo at which all the leading players in Iraq were present could be the start of U.S. moves to cut its losses.

AS THE popularity of United States President George W. Bush plummets, a complex diplomatic enterprise has been launched to enable the pullout of American forces from Iraq. The lead players are Iran, Russia, the U.S., and Iraq's Sunni Arab neighbours. The aim is to reconcile the deep differences between Iraq's restive Sunni community and the majority Shias and the Kurds. The logic is that since the Sunnis spearhead the growing resistance to the U.S. occupation, their accommodation in the political mainstream after a power sharing deal with the Shias and the Kurds would bring down the violence. That, in turn, would allow American troops to disengage from Iraq.

According to American calculations, a breakthrough is possible if countries with sufficient influence over Sunnis, Shias, and Kurds are involved. That is where Iran, with its now-acknowledged influence over Shias and Kurds, comes into the picture. Russia is important for its longstanding links with the Iraqi Baathists who comprise a significant portion of the resistance. The neighbouring Arab countries are indispensable because of their deep-rooted ties with the Sunnis.

The entire project got off the ground last month in Cairo where a reconciliation conference on Iraq was held. Hosted by the Arab League, most of the leading players in Iraq — Iran, the U.S., Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Syria — assembled in the Egyptian capital.

Significantly, for the first time, Sunni leaders — many with close ties to Iraq's complex resistance movement — were also present. They included Harith al-Dhari, head of the hardline Muslim Clerics Association. Mr. Al-Dhari emphasised that resistance to the occupation was legitimate, and the presence of U.S. troops must end sooner than later.

"Branding the resistance fighters as terrorists, and accusing them all of infiltrating from abroad is an injustice to the honourable resistance," he stressed. He described the occupation as "illegitimate," and said the claim that ending it would lead to chaos was a pretext to extend the stay of foreign troops.

Also present was Ayham al-Samarra'i, who is apparently close to Baathists in the resistance. The Arabic daily Al Hayat reported that back-channel contacts between resistance groups and the U.S. intelligence were established at the conference. It said an informal understanding had been reached on the withdrawal timetable; the Americans were working towards a pullout deadline of 2007.

The Cairo conclave had Washington's backing, but Saudi Arabia's role in organising it was significant. Alarmed by Iran's growing influence in Iraq, Sunni-ruled Saudi Arabia took the lead in pushing for an Arab League initiative. This translated into the October visit to Iraq by the League's Secretary General Amr Mousa. Besides, the Saudis had warned Washington in September that Iran's influence inside Iraq was becoming overwhelming.

Iran, which has ties with Shia militias, as well as key members of Iraq's political and religious establishment, has been wary of the Cairo initiative.

Iran's apprehensions are not hard to fathom. It fears a Sunni resurgence could reduce Shia influence and, hence, its own clout in Iraq. Quietly but deliberately, Iran has been moving in a manner that would shore up its influence in Iraq. Its initiative includes efforts to integrate the Iranian transportation network with Iraq, and participation in important infrastructure projects.

The Iranians and the Iraqis are already discussing establishing an oil pipeline that would connect the Iranian oil city of Abadan with Basra. Basra is the nucleus of southern Iraq's oil industry and is surrounded by a string of oil fields. Basra and Abadan are located on either side of the 190-km-long Shatt al-Arab waterway formed by the confluence of the Tigris and the Euphrates.

Both countries have given priority to constructing a cross-border railway link between Basra and Khorramshar, the Iranian oil city 10 km north of Abadan. Most of this port city was devastated during the eight-year Iran-Iraq war. Besides, Iran is considering building a railway line to link the Iraqi holy cities of Najaf and Karbala, important Shia pilgrimage centres.

Cross-border trade between Iran and Iraq along six customs points is flourishing, and could touch the $1 billion mark soon. Convoys of trucks from Iran laden with food, and consumer goods such as refrigerators, air conditioners, and other home appliances, regularly enter Iraq. Iraqi merchants prefer imports from Iran because the southern land route is safe compared with the highways that link Iraq to Jordan and Syria to the west.

Iranian investments in the Kurdish north are also set to flow, as nearly 100 Iranian companies, pledging to pump in around $400 million, have registered in these areas. Iranians, at one time, feared a nuclear threat from Iraq, but with the arch foe, Saddam Hussein, no longer in power they are determined to dig deeper in Iraq.

Aware that any exit strategy will not work without Iranian consent, the Americans have decided to hold direct talks with Iran, as was stated by the U.S. Ambassador to Iraq, Zalmay Khalilzad, in a recent interview to Newsweek magazine. The Americans would, however, find it hard to persuade Iran. Teheran is expected to relent only if the mounting international pressure on its nuclear programme is eased. Besides, it will want Shia groups close to it formally accommodated in the new Iraqi army and intelligence services.

Already a link between the U.S. policy in Iraq and the Iranian nuclear question can be read into the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board deciding against referring Iran to the U.N. Security Council during its meeting in Vienna on November 18.

Increased Russian role

The domestic debate in Washington over the pullout of forces is likely to enhance Russian involvement in Iraq. Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari headed swiftly to Moscow at the end of the Cairo conference to enlist support. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov gave Russia's complete backing for a follow-up meeting to the Cairo conclave in Baghdad early next year, under the aegis of the Arab League.

Russia is in a position to influence a section of the resistance. During the Soviet era, the Russians enjoyed a special relationship with the Iraqi Communist Party, which was formed in 1934. However, relations between Iraq's anti-communist monarchists and Moscow deteriorated, till the 1958 military coup that brought Abdul Karim Qasim to power. Thereafter, the Soviet Union became Iraq's major weapon supplier, and in 1972 signed a Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation with Baghdad. In a period spanning 30 years, the Soviet specialists built around 80 big factories in Iraq. Prior to 1990, around 8,000 Soviet citizens were permanently stationed in Iraq.

However, the Russians are unlikely to abide by U.S. wishes easily. For instance, soon after his meeting with Mr. Zebari, Mr. Lavrov went on to say that there was an expectation in Moscow that Iraq would honour the multi-billion dollar contracts that Russian companies had signed with the Saddam Hussein government. After being edged out of large parts of West Asia in the post-Cold War era, the Russians are likely to do everything possible to enhance once again their profile in the resource rich region.

The Cairo conference has opened up key channels of communication, but bitterness among the Baathists and Sunnis, on one side, and the Shias and Kurds, on the other, still runs deep. For instance, the pro-Baathist Mr. Al-Samarra'i was quoted as saying at the conference that armed groups would be willing to enter into dialogue with the Americans, but would shun talks with the Iraqi government dominated by the Shia-Kurdish combine.

Sunnis have threatened to walk out of the Cairo arrangement already. Abldel Salan al-Kubaisy of the Muslim Clerics Organisation said his organisation would "reconsider decisions reached at the Cairo conference" if violence against Sunnis persisted. He accused the Scorpion forces of the Shia-dominated Interior Ministry of targeting civilians indiscriminately.

All Iraqi parties in Cairo were united in distinguishing between legitimate resistance and "terrorism" as practiced by the group loyal to Jordanian militant Abu Musab Al Zarqawi, the perpetrator of the horrific bombings in Amman recently. However, a huge effort and a string of compromises are required for an arrangement that would allow the Americans to end their colossal misadventure in Iraq.

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