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An ambitious grouping taking shape

V. Jayanth

India could still be regarded as an "outsider" at the East Asia Summit. It will be better to let its growing economic clout do the "talking."

A BIT of hype is not unusual before an organisation or regional bloc is formally launched. The informal exchanges, consultations, and the thinking aloud by member-states ahead of the December 14 East Asia Summit (EAS) must therefore be viewed as nothing more than a build-up. And, it will be in the best interests of all concerned not to expect too much from the very first such meeting of leaders from 16 countries — from Australia and Japan, to India and China. The very geographical footprint of the EAS appears to be too large and ambitious. That India got invited to the first Summit can be attributed to two main factors — its fast-growing economy, and the "friendly push" given by well-wishers in East Asia, especially Singapore.

There can be no denying that at least a handful of the members-to-be of the EAS were not too keen on getting India into the fold at this stage. At best, they would have agreed to let it become a "dialogue partner" after a while. Fortunately, the accelerated growth of the Indian economy over the past two years and more, the changing global scenario, the security environment in the region, and the presence of "all weather friends," enabled India to become part of the EAS from the start. This regional conclave has been in the air for over a decade. It was mooted by the then Malaysian Prime Minister, Mahathir Mohamed, as the East Asian Economic Caucus (EAEC), which he wanted to be a driving force within the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC).

And within the EAEC, Dr. Mahathir envisaged the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) being a core group. For various reasons, the EAEC could not materialise during Dr. Mahathir's tenure. It was left to his successor, Abdullah Ahmed Badawi, to realise that "vision," albeit in a changed format. Ideally, Malaysia would have preferred to restrict the EAS to ASEAN plus three — Japan, China, and South Korea — who already have an annual summit under the ASEAN umbrella. A couple of years ago, India was also invited to this summit of ASEAN leaders and some of their dialogue partners.

It was, perhaps, from the ASEAN plus four forum that the EAS concept also got enlarged. Some ASEAN member-states pressed for a larger canvas and got 16 countries on board — ASEAN + Three + Australia, New Zealand, and India. So, the EAS will be a somewhat reduced-level meeting of ASEAN and its dialogue partners. From another angle, it will leave out the members of APEC on the other side of the Pacific Ocean — including the U.S. and the Latin American states. Even then, the EAS, comprising a diverse community of countries and economies — that includes China and Australia, on the one side, Laos and Cambodia, on the other, as well as Indonesia and India to complete the cycle — cannot think of any ambitious agenda from the start. The participants, except Australia and New Zealand, are familiar with each other and share a continent.

Some of the countries and their leaders may be thinking of an East Asian Community as the ultimate objective. Despite the two or even three-tier economies in the forum, it may not be out of place to plan for a "community."

Whether it should be on the lines of the European Union or otherwise is for the member-states and the summiteers to decide. They may well set up a core committee to work out a road map for this purpose. Already, the ASEAN is evolving as a Free Trade Area, and the APEC too will be partially an FTA by 2010; it will be a full FTA by 2020. For the EAS to achieve something tangible and take the driver's seat in the APEC, its leaders should decide whether they want an FTA to start with, or work towards an East Asian Community right away.

Also, the sensitive issue of including the currency in such a community needs to be thought over. After the East Asian currency crisis and the meltdown of the late 1990s, currency and its management remain issues that each country may want to tackle on its own.

The concept of what an East Asian Community, in the first instance, and ultimately an Asian Community, should be needs to be defined by the leaders before their officials can go into the framework.

From an Indian viewpoint, the EAC takes New Delhi beyond the ASEAN and perhaps a step closer to APEC, whose membership remains frozen for the time being. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is expected to articulate his "vision" of an Asian community at the EAS.

If his Government is able to maintain the current tempo of growth and perhaps accelerate it, that itself may be enough for other countries and regional groupings to want to involve India in their processes. Ultimately, it is a country's economy and its defence prowess that matter.

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