THE MUSLIM Brotherhood's success in Egypt's parliamentary elections, which came to a turbulent end on Thursday, will reverberate around the Arab world. The region traditionally looks to Cairo for a lead. And potentially incompatible demands for strengthened civil societies and the integration of Islamists into mainstream politics are this year's hot topic.

The Brotherhood's advance also poses a dilemma for Hosni Mubarak, Egypt's President, and for the United States and other countries urging greater Middle East democracy but fearful of Islamist activism. Officially, the Brotherhood is banned in Egypt, as in several Arab countries.

The George W. Bush administration refuses to talk to the movement. It is equally wary of Islamists such as Hamas, expected to make gains in next month's Palestinian elections.

Poll results gave the ruling National Democratic party and its allies roughly 333 seats in the 454-seat Assembly. Secular parties and independents took a handful of seats. But the Brotherhood was the big gainer. Its 19 per cent share of the vote, translating into a record 88 seats, confirmed it as Egypt's main Opposition group — despite its decision to field only about 150 candidates for fear of provoking a crackdown.

Fraud claims repeated

The elections saw a repeat of the fraud claims that marred Mr. Mubarak's re-election triumph in September. Violence and mass arrests of Brotherhood supporters accompanied the poll, and on Wednesday at least eight people were killed amid widespread complaints that police had stopped some Opposition voters casting their ballots.

"Bullets govern the elections," the Opposition Al-Wafd newspaper declared. Meanwhile, the pro-government Al-Gomhuria warned that "The Mullahs are Coming!," playing on fears that although the Brotherhood's campaign emphasised practical issues, its slogan "Islam is the Solution" pointed to a hidden agenda of social intolerance, Sharia law, repression of women, and hostility to religious minorities.

The Brotherhood says that is a distortion. It spokesman, Mohammad Moursi, said earlier this year: "All around the world, people want to be democratic, to pick their own leaders. Creating a democratic, civil party is our aim. We want political reform. But the constitution says the main source of all laws is the Qur'an."

Setback for reforms

Meanwhile, Egypt's reform rollercoaster hit another trough this week with the renewed detention of former presidential candidate Ayman Nour. "Nour's trial, like the violence against voters, is a terrible advertisement for President Mubarak's supposed reform agenda," Human Rights Watch said.

Mr. Nour's plight also prompted criticism from the U.S. "This is the latest in a string of events that cause us serious concern about developments in Egypt," the State Department said.

But while condemning poll irregularities, Washington says "considerable progress" has been made.

Egyptian officials say that despite all the problems, the impetus for reform will gather pace.

"The process has become unstoppable," one official said. "The next elections [in 2010] will bring even bigger changes."

Asked whether the ban on the Brotherhood would be lifted, he said it was up to the movement to abide by Egypt's Constitution, which forbids parties based on religion, ethnicity or gender.

It had to decide whether it was ready to join the secular political mainstream. — © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2004

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