Opinion - Editorials   

An election that resolves little

Believe it or not, President George W. Bush claims the United States-led occupation forces are on their way to victory in Iraq. By way of proof, he points to the significant turnout in the December 15 parliamentary election. The claim rings hollow not only because violence has flared up again after a brief lull around Election Day. The good turnout, contrasting with low voter participation in the two elections held earlier this year, is largely attributable to a change in strategy by those waging the national resistance against foreign occupation. The Sunni groups spearheading the insurgency have reason to believe they erred by enforcing boycotts of the January election for a constituent assembly and the October referendum on the Constitution. They have come to recognise that they can use ballots as well as bullets to achieve their objective. The Sunnis hope that with a sizable presence in parliament, they will be able to mobilise other communities behind their call for an end to the occupation. This change of course is likely to meet with a positive response. Candidates across Iraq (other than in the Kurd-dominated pockets) made the ouster of foreign troops the central feature of their campaigns. Public opinion polls show that an overwhelming majority of Iraqis support this demand. Mr. Bush must be dangerously out of touch with reality if he can characterise this democratic upsurge against the U.S.-led occupation as an augury of victory.

While the final outcome of the election will not be known for several weeks, the composition of the next parliament is likely to be very different from that of the existing one. The United Iraqi Alliance, a conglomerate of Shia parties, appears set to emerge as the largest bloc. However, the Alliance is unlikely to win as many seats as it did in the January election. Given the Sunni boycott and a system of voting by nation-wide lists, the Shias carved out a parliamentary presence much larger than their share of the national population. There are likely to be at least four distinct blocs in the incoming parliament but at this stage it is difficult to predict what kind of equations they will establish with one another. The situation is complicated by the Constitutional requirement that the government to be formed after the election must have the support of at least two-thirds of the 275 legislators. The coalition formed between the Shia Alliance and a group of Kurd parties after the January election was effective in drafting a Constitution weighted in favour of these two communities. It is unlikely to hold in the new political situation where the Shia masses are clamouring for the ouster of foreign troops. The Sunni groups will try to take advantage of this situation as they strive to recast the Constitutional scheme. These political differences are likely to give an edge to the animosities that exist within various sects and ethnic groups. They might well push Iraq closer to civil war.

Printer friendly page  
Send this article to Friends by E-Mail

Stories in this Section

Cub versus Tiger
An election that resolves little
Party time in Mumbai and Hyderabad
Education for a livelihood
Hundred years of the Andamans Cellular Jail
World danger or political infighting?
Not libertarian but anti-social
Computers can help tease out the origins of life
Another exposé
WTO deal
Wholly avoidable
Condemnable
Hard choice
Fond memories
A loss

Copyright © 2005, The Hindu. Republication or redissemination of the contents of this screen are expressly prohibited without the written consent of The Hindu