The Hindu : Opinion / News Analysis : World danger or political infighting?

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Wednesday, Dec 21, 2005

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Opinion - News Analysis

World danger or political infighting?

Simon Tisdall

What was Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's aim in making statements against Israel?

MAHMOUD AHMADINEJAD's hostile jibes at Israel have caused almost universal offence. But Iran-watchers are divided over whether the President's statements mark a dangerous shift in Teheran's international outlook or form part of an internal power struggle.

Mr. Ahmadinejad's threat "to wipe Israel off the map" should be taken seriously, said Martin Indyk, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel working at the Brookings Institution in Washington. "Should Israel be satisfied that he scored an own goal, further isolating Iran," he asked. "The answer to my mind is clearly no." Mr. Indyk said the President's threats were consistent with a decade-long "war by proxy" waged through Hizbullah in Lebanon and Islamic Jihad in Palestine. Nor was Mr. Amadinejad alone in his views. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, declared in September that "jihad is the only way to confront the Zionist enemy."

But Iran's military capacity is limited — and no match for nuclear-armed Israel. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Iran is developing an upgraded Shahab-3 ballistic missile capable of striking Israel. Its acquisition of nuclear weapons would radically alter the strategic balance. But Iran denies any such ambition; and talks on the issue are due to recommence in Vienna.

Despite its anti-Western rhetoric, Iran had no history of state-to-state aggression since the 1979 revolution, a British official said. Nor could Mr. Ahmadinejad suddenly change its military posture.

One explanation is that Mr. Ahmadinejad, a disciple of the late Ayatollah Khomeini, is trying to resurrect Iran's role as a revolutionary beacon, uncontaminated by contact with the West.

"He sees himself as a pan-Islamist leader speaking on behalf of the oppressed Muslim masses everywhere," said Karim Sadjadpour, an International Crisis Group analyst. "There is intense debate on Iran's radical right about the extent of any diplomatic accommodation over the nuclear issue. A younger generation of hardliners to which Ahmadinejad belongs opposes this. They are opposed by the pragmatists.

"Perhaps he is trying to curry public support for his position. But most Iranians will not react favourably. They see Israel as an Arab issue. Unemployment and the measures Ahmadinejad promised to improve the economy are what they care about," Mr. Sadjadpour said.

Ray Takeyh of the U.S.-based Council on Foreign Relations said Mr. Ahmadinejad was "largely indifferent" to outside world opinion. But Iran could not afford to abandon its post-Khomeini efforts to open up to foreign trade and investment, particularly in the energy sector. Key partners Russia and China joined the criticism of his anti-Israel statements. "What he said about Israel delighted the American neo-cons, it delighted our Arab rivals, it delighted the Israelis... But it was totally against Iran's national interest," an informed Iranian source said. But U.S. hostility was partly responsible for Mr. Ahmadinejad's rise. "Your hardliners have created our hardliner."

By claiming (like George Bush) to be on a mission from God and by predicting the second coming of the Twelfth Imam, Mr. Ahmadinejad has shocked some observers. But the most likely rational explanation for his behaviour was domestic political weakness, the British official said. His bid to purify the revolution had stirred up stiff opposition from old guard conservatives, reformists (who call his policies delusional) and corrupt "clerical oligarchs" who run the powerful bonyads — lucrative semi-official business enterprises which Mr. Ahmadinejad wants to rein in.

- Guardian Newspapers Limited 2005

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