NEW DELHI: The Government is confident that it will be able to get the constitutional amendment on reservation in private unaided educational institutions passed in Parliament aided by the divisions in the National Democratic Alliance and other Opposition parties.

It is to be taken up for consideration and passage in the Lok Sabha on Wednesday and the Rajya Sabha the day after. All parties have issued whips to their MPs asking them to be present to vote.

Although the BJP's deputy leader in the Lok Sabha V.K. Malhotra had said on Monday that the NDA would oppose the Bill, there were signs on Tuesday that the party might not like to be seen stalling a Bill that would help candidates belonging to Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes and socially and educationally backward classes to get admissions for the next academic session.

Parliamentary Affairs Minister Priyaranjan Dasmunsi expressed the confidence that the ruling benches would be able to muster the majority of two-thirds of those present and voting required for a constitutional amendment. "Those MPs who are committed to the students, whose fate hangs in a balance held by Parliament, would certainly not stop the Bill," he said.

The arithmetic

The total strength of the Lok Sabha, including the Speaker, is 545. With two vacancies, 10 members suspended because of the sting operation, three in jail and five more suspended on Tuesday, the strength is down to 524. If Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and Bihar Deputy Chief Minister Sushil Modi do not turn up to vote, although they can, the strength would be further down to 521. The strength of the UPA and its supporting parties such as the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party (both have said they will support the Bill) is 343 while the rest total 181.

For a two-thirds majority, the Government needs 350 votes. The shortfall is expected to be made up by the "cracks" in the Opposition. The Telugu Desam Parliamentary Party leader Yerrannaidu has said his party would support the Bill and Sharad Yadav of the Janata Dal (United) is certainly not keen to be seen among those preventing reservation in private colleges.

The current strength of the Rajya Sabha is 234 (total strength is 245. There are eight vacancies and three members have been suspended). The ruling party and others supporting it add up to 135 (not counting Ghulam Nabi Azad who is now Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir). The Government was confident that it will be able to get the support of at least 30 to 40 more MPs, taking its votes to anywhere between 165 to 175. The two-thirds figure would be reached at 156.

Mr. Dasmunsi told reporters that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Leader of the Lok Sabha Pranab Mukherjee had been talking to party leaders.

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