The Hindu : Opinion / News Analysis : LTTE testing the waters in Tamil Nadu?

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Saturday, Jan 07, 2006

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LTTE testing the waters in Tamil Nadu?

V. Jayanth

There appears to be a renewed pro-Eelam campaign by some parties in Tamil Nadu. Why now?

AT A critical juncture when the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) has been violating the ceasefire at will and trying to provoke the Sri Lankan Army into a retaliatory strike in Tamil areas, there appears to be an orchestrated campaign in Tamil Nadu in its support. Some pro-Eelam political parties and groups organised a public meeting in Chennai just a day before Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapakse was scheduled to visit the city. Anti-Sri Lanka rhetoric was much in evidence. For various reasons, Mr. Rajapakse's visit was called off.

The question in the wake of this renewed pro-Eelam campaign in Tamil Nadu is: why now? Aside from the presidential visit, was there any other compelling reason for raising the issue all over again?

There is information both with the Sri Lankan Government and the intelligence agencies in Chennai that a war may soon break out in the island. Increased violations of the ceasefire by the Tigers, and the targeting of the armed forces are clear pointers.

Why take on the visiting President or Colombo when it is the LTTE, or one of its front organisations, that is violating the ceasefire and perpetrating the killings? Speakers at the Chennai meeting demanded that India should not provide any military assistance to Sri Lanka; that it should not develop or reconstruct the Palaly air base. They also made it clear that they did not expect a sympathetic consideration of the Tamils cause by Mr. Rajapakse, who was dependent on hardline Sinhala forces such as the Janatha Vimukthi Perumana (JVP), the Buddhist clergy, and the Hela Urimaya.

Support for the "Tamils issue" has come from the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK), the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) — both constituents of the United Progressive Alliance ruling the Centre — the Dravida Kazhagam, and the Dalit Panthers of India (DPI). Of course, the Tamil Nationalist Movement (TNM) led by P. Nedumaran has identified itself with the issue for a long time, just as the MDMK founder Vaiko has.

The leader of the alliance in Tamil Nadu, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), has steered clear of the controversy. Mr. Rajapakse met Union Minister T.R. Baalu of the DMK in New Delhi. His desire to meet Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalithaa and Mr. Vaiko did not materialise because his visit to Chennai was called off. It is said Ms. Jayalalithaa did not want to meet him at this juncture. From the security point of view too, he was advised to keep off Chennai.

The visiting President met the top leaders of the Left parties, who have not only discussed all the issues with him but also briefed their Tamil Nadu units. The communist leaders in Tamil Nadu have taken the unambiguous stand that the "Tamils issue" is an internal matter of Sri Lanka and not an election issue in the State, which will go to the polls in April-May this year.

The sudden surge of support for the Tamils cause has given rise to fears of renewed LTTE activity or propaganda in the State, with related concerns about security and smuggling. After what happened in 1990 and 1991 — the assassination of EPRLF leader Pathmanabha and former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi — security agencies, as well as the people, are worried about the possibility of the LTTE spreading its tentacles again. And election time is known to be the Tigers' favourite period.

It is one thing for Tamil Nadu and its political parties to stand up for the rights and privileges of the Sri Lankan Tamils, but quite often the distinction between the Tamils issue and the LTTE gets blurred. When successive Sri Lankan Governments have tried to engage the LTTE in substantive talks, there is no evidence that the Tigers are serious about them. The question, therefore, is why have the pro-Eelam groups in Tamil Nadu never tried to persuade the LTTE to engage in substantive discussions within a time frame, or even come up with alternatives for a lasting, peaceful solution.

There may not be a more favourable Head of State than President Chandrika Kumaratunga, who was serious about resolving the crisis. But there was an attempt on her life at the climax of an election campaign. And when the United National Party leader Ranil Wickremesinghe tried to convince the LTTE that he was ready to walk that extra mile for peace, the Tigers ensured he lost the recent presidential election. After tacitly "working" for the victory of Mr. Rajapakse, the campaign now seems to be to project him as a Sinhala hardliner.

The coalition Government at the Centre appears to be wary of taking any initiative on Sri Lanka, especially because so many of its constituents are from Tamil Nadu. In an election year, the Manmohan Singh Government does not want to do anything that can misfire. For the LTTE, it may be useful to test the waters now to assess whether Tamil Nadu will be hospitable if a need arises to source some of its requirements from here, or even to launch a propaganda to centre-stage the Tamils issue projecting itself as the only hope and saviour.

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