Opinion - News Analysis   

Climate studies help predict malaria epidemics

Alok Jha

A warning system, based on computer models of climate change, can predict outbreaks up to five months in advance.

SCIENTISTS HAVE developed an early-warning system for the outbreak of malaria epidemics. They claim that the system, which is based on computer models of climate change, can predict outbreaks up to five months in advance.

Malaria kills more than 1 million people every year, and infects 500 million worldwide. Although endemic in many parts of the world, the disease is concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa, which accounts for almost 90 per cent of all cases. "Although the greatest burden of malaria in Africa is suffered by those living in endemic regions, epidemics pose a serious threat to many millions of people and their prevention remains a priority," wrote the researchers in their paper published on Thursday in Nature.

Climate is the key in the development of not only the malaria parasite but also the mosquitoes that carry it. In Botswana, the National Malaria Control Programme has developed an early-warning system based on population vulnerability, rainfall, and health surveillance to predict and detect unusual changes in the seasonal pattern of disease. The risk of an epidemic in Botswana increases dramatically just after a season of good rainfall.

Tim Palmer of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts in Reading used data on average rainfall from the past two decades to retrospectively predict the incidences of malaria in Botswana between 1982 and 2002. His method predicted all the epidemics.

"The ensemble of climate models used give probabilistic predictions of high rainfall for Botswana ahead of the rainy season, and using the malaria-rainfall relationship, this was used to make a risk assessment of malaria incidence," he said.

A separate study published last year showed that monitoring rainfall and sea surface temperature could predict the peak of a malaria season up to one month in advance. But the earlier warning provided by Dr. Palmer's work could give health workers more time to build up drug stocks or to target insecticides. "The health officials can have a warning of the risk of a malaria epidemic before the rainy season begins," Dr Palmer said.

— © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2004

Printer friendly page  
Send this article to Friends by E-Mail

Stories in this Section

Now, a political Prime Minister
Hat-trick: a potted history
Council of States or council of nominees?
Iran and the IAEA
Climate studies help predict malaria epidemics
Resolve crisis
PM's stand
Hamas' victory
Who is supreme?
Continuing the conversation

Copyright © 2006, The Hindu. Republication or redissemination of the contents of this screen are expressly prohibited without the written consent of The Hindu