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Challenges before new regime

Winning is not everything. Chief Minister H.D. Kumaraswamy easily won, by 138 votes to 66, the confidence motion in the Karnataka Assembly. He also began his innings with some panache. He seems to have consolidated his position in the Janata Dal (Secular), winning over to his side senior leaders such as former Deputy Chief Minister M.P. Prakash and three ex-Ministers, D. Manjunath, Merajuddin Patel, and Mahadeva Prasad. P.G.R. Sindhia, who voted against the motion, remains the lone heavyweight among those opposing him within the JD(S) legislature party. However, the vote in favour of the new Government can do little to overcome the instability inherent in the marriage of convenience between the Kumaraswamy faction of the JD(S) and the Bharatiya Janata Party. While the direction to the JD(S) MLAs to vote according to their conscience deferred a formal split, Mr. Kumaraswamy will have to face up to the irreconcilable differences with the national leadership of the party, which is against any tie-up with the BJP. His father, former Prime Minister and senior leader of the JD(S), Deve Gowda, cannot afford to vacillate any longer on the practical matter of taking action against those who have cast their lot with the BJP. The longer the delay, the greater will be the damage to the party's already diminished stock. After the vote of confidence, there can be no excuse for Mr. Gowda continuing with his soft persuasive skills and not wielding the axe against the rebels.

Any action by the JD(S) high command may not have immediate implications for the survival of the new coalition. With the Speaker, Krishna, recognising Mr. Kumaraswamy as the leader of the JD(S) legislature party, there is no imminent threat of disqualification of those who have voted for the confidence motion. But if Mr. Gowda gets earnest about reviving the JD(S) as a secular formation in Karnataka and treating the Kumaraswamy group as an adversary, there could be trouble. If, for some reason, the father goes back on his commitment, the son could face a renewed threat from the All India Progressive Janata Dal, an anti-BJP and pro-Congress breakaway group led by S. Siddaramaiah. Further, the new regime is at the mercy of the BJP, which can pull the plug on it any time. Chief Minister Kumaraswamy seems to be in the same vulnerable position as Prime Ministers Charan Singh and Chandra Shekhar were with the Congress supporting them. Irrespective of the Speaker's decision, Mr. Kumaraswamy cannot remain in the JD(S) and head a coalition government with the BJP. For the first time, the saffron party has come to power in a southern State. It cannot be unaware that marriages of convenience are, more often than not, undone in a popular vote. However, the new coalition Government starts off with one advantage: the standards of governance set by the predecessor regime were so low that the successor will not face the pressure of high expectations.

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