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Iraq faces more instability

The election of Ibrahim al-Jaafari as Prime Minister of Iraq by just a single vote has only underlined the deep divisions between and within Iraqi communities that the United States-led military invasion opened up. Following the victory of the United Iraqi Alliance in the December 15 parliamentary election, the umbrella Shia grouping nearly came apart over who should be nominated Prime Minister. The matter had to be settled by a vote. It was only after striking a deal with Moqtada al-Sadr, the popular cleric who commands the biggest group within the UIA, that Mr. Jaafari of the Islamic Da'awa party managed his slender victory over his rival, Adel Abdul Mahdi of the Supreme Council of Islamic Revolution (SCIRI) in Iraq. Although the Shiite bloc presented a united front after the election, it is clear that the Prime Minister has an uphill task. He starts out with the disadvantage of his association with the Iraq Governing Authority, the interim government that he led, under which violence in Iraq escalated with more suicide bombings, assassinations, shootings, and atrocities by the occupation forces. For both Iraqi Sunnis and Kurds, Mr. Mahdi was the potentially unifying figure. The Sunnis are angry with Mr. Jaafari for the killing of hundreds last year, for which they blame the interim government's Interior Ministry and associated Shiite militias.

The immediate challenge for Mr. Jaafari is the formation of something like a government. This, by conservative estimates, could take up to April. With only 128 out of 275 seats in the transitional National Assembly, the UIA needs to co-opt others for making up the two-thirds majority required to form the government. There is also some talk of a `government of national unity' so that Shias, Sunnis, and Kurds can share power. The idea has the backing of the U.S., which believes this can bring down the levels of Sunni-led armed resistance in Iraq. The Sunnis have set two main conditions for participation in government: amendments to provisions in the Constitution that give the Shias and Kurds semi-autonomous control of oil-rich regions, and control of at least one of the two key Ministries, Interior and Defence. It is doubtful that these concessions can be made. To make matters worse, Mr. al-Sadr, whose support is important to the Prime Minister, has demanded that secular Sunnis, especially former Ba'ath party members, should be kept out of the new government. The Kurds may join hands with the Shiites as they did while forming the interim government. But with both Mr. al-Sadr and SCIRI demanding the immediate exit of the U.S.-led occupation troops, and with Kurds fearing their departure, the future of a Shia-Kurd alliance too is uncertain. More instability seems guaranteed in Iraq.

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