The Hindu : Opinion / News Analysis : Bold decisions, clever moves in Kerala

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Friday, Feb 24, 2006

Opinion

Opinion - News Analysis

Bold decisions, clever moves in Kerala

C. Gouridasan Nair

The CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front sees an opportunity in the discontentment of the silent majority. The ruling United Democratic Front leadership is banking on what it believes is a `feel good' factor among the people.

AS KERALA moves into election mode, the question is whether there has been any change in the mood of the electorate since the 2004 Lok Sabha election and the recently held local body polls — both outcomes went overwhelmingly in favour of the Opposition Left Democratic Front (LDF). Has Oommen Chandy as Chief Minister made a difference? Has the CPI(M)'s bold decision to keep the Democratic Indira Congress (Karunakaran) at bay, despite the difficult-to-resist temptations of a massive poll victory, raised its stock? And, no less important, how does the electorate, especially the poor and the young, perceive the governance and development paradigms of the rival political combinations?

If the verdicts of Elections 2004 and the recent local body election are any indication, the CPI(M)-led LDF has little to worry about. Nineteen out of 20 Lok Sabha members from Kerala belong to the LDF and it is in full control of governance at the lower tier, holding more than 80 per cent of the local self-government institutions.

The widespread public apathy and the consolidation of caste and communal interests that ruined the LDF's poll chances in the 2001 Assembly election are no longer there.

The Left today has friends in all communities, particularly among the minorities. And despite being a highly critical Opposition, it has not lagged behind in the debate on development that has assumed a hitherto unseen importance in Kerala.

On the other side of the divide, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) has, at least on the face of it, recovered from the debilitating setbacks of 2004, the local body elections, and the Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha byelection. Over the last one-and-a-half years, Mr. Chandy has been working to a script, making each move with caution and a shrewd sense of timing.

Chandy's game plan

From the day he took over as Chief Minister, Mr. Chandy has set a scorching pace for himself, working almost round-the-clock to lift the UDF from the depths. He has also put the Opposition on the defensive by generating a public discussion over alleged malpractices by the previous LDF Government (1996-2001) in a power sector deal with SNC Lavalin of Canada.

Mr. Chandy has been chanting the development mantra from day one and forced even his rivals to take the cue. Brushing aside criticism, he has pushed mega projects such as the `Smart City' IT park at Kochi, the Vizhinjam Deep Sea Container Trans-shipment Project (Thiruvananthapuram), and the Vallarpadam Container Trans-shipment Project (Kochi), among others. He has also been wooing the backward and minority communities. This has led to the much-delayed implementation of a report on backward class representation in State service submitted in 2001, barely months after the UDF swept the polls winning 99 out of a possible 140 Assembly seats.

The mood of the articulate sections of the electorate is upbeat. The price of rubber has been ruling high for several weeks and the plantation sector is quiet, though the prices of some key commodities remain low. The Government has achieved reasonable success in its paddy procurement programme and the service sector is booming. It has cleared all pension arrears and is now paying assistance to several lakh persons every month.

The coming days will see the Government implementing the Pay Commission report submitted on Wednesday. The Commission has recommended a minimum pay hike of Rs.2,500 for all employees with retrospective effect from July, 2004, and several new benefits. The Government has already restored many benefits it had taken away from the State employees and teachers in 2001. The UDF's calculation appears to be that the pay revision, involving around Rs.950 crore, will leave Government employees and teachers in a happy frame of mind on election eve.

The UDF leadership is clearly banking on what it perceives as a `feel good' factor among the people. But if one were to go by the Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha byelection in which a person with very little resources came up trumps against a confident and resource-surplus UDF, there could still be a silent majority belonging to all these sections along with the poorest of the poor, those employed in the crumbling traditional industries, and marginal farmers, who do not see substantive change happening in their lives. That is where the LDF sees its opportunity.

With Mr. Karunakaran and his supporters out of the alliance, the UDF is today a slim and trim outfit. Mr. Chandy, for one, would love to keep it that way. But with the CPI(M) shutting its doors firmly on Mr. Karunakaran, there is pressure on the Congress leadership to accommodate his party in the UDF so that the alliance can neutralise the popular support the LDF has garnered over five years. Developments on this front will depend on how confident Mr. Chandy and his friends feel about facing the electorate on their own. At least the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), in deep trouble in its Malabar citadel, does not seem to think that the UDF on its own can pull it off.

The LDF was hobnobbing with Mr. Karunakaran and his supporters since the Ernakulam Lok Sabha byelection in September, 2003. There was even speculation about his party being given a berth in the LDF despite strong opposition from within the CPI(M) and from other constituents such as the CPI and the RSP. It ended when the CPI(M) Polit Bureau decided that the party would have nothing to do with Mr. Karunakaran. The decision caused considerable heartburn within the CPI(M) because a tie-up with the former Congress leader was expected to provide the LDF a massive victory in the Assembly polls and, maybe, even help the CPI(M) secure a majority on its own.

BJP's role

The Bharatiya Janata Party, third major player in Kerala, is in total disarray following disclosures about sale of votes in the Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha byelection and intense factionalism. But, with 6-8 per cent assured votes, it can still play spoilsport in any election. The UDF has done enough to keep the BJP pleased and once again appears to be counting on it to discomfit the Left. Which way the BJP votes will go may be crucial.

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