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Pakistan awaits George Bush

B. Muralidhar Reddy

With most of its expectations dashed during the run-up to the U.S. President's visit, Islamabad is hoping at least for a few trade concessions.

SINCE ITS creation in 1947 Pakistan has lived with a peculiar "parity complex" vis-à-vis India. The fact that India is seven times bigger has not stopped Pakistan's rulers from seeking parity with it. Primarily, it is this desire that drove Pakistan to becoming a nuclear power.

The ongoing visit by United States President George W. Bush to the subcontinent is no exception in the comparison game. In a way, Pakistan has waited for this for about six years — since Bill Clinton made a five-hour stopover in Islamabad and delivered a stern sermon to the establishment on a wide range of American concerns. The Pakistani establishment and civil society have not yet lived that down. They have been comparing it with Mr. Clinton's five-day extravaganza in India. Conscious of the hurt sentiments, Mr. Bush's managers have scheduled two days for his Pakistan visit; the U.S. President's trip to India lasted three days.

However, Mr. Bush's visit has not brought joy to the Musharraf regime though it is supposed to be a re-discovered frontline ally in the region and elevated to the status of a major non-NATO partner for its role in the "war against terror." The visit could at best be described as an expression of gratitude by the sole superpower. In the worst case scenario, it could prove an embarrassment, albeit away from the glare of television cameras. The constant refrain from the world and Washington "to do more" is bound to get on anyone's nerves.

During the run-up to the Bush visit, there were signs of disquiet in the Pakistani establishment. The security and secrecy surrounding the tour programme made it appear he would be entering a battle zone rather than begin a state visit. The explosion in Karachi, targeting a vehicle of the U.S. Consulate and causing the death of an American diplomat, has not helped.

Anti-American and anti-West sentiment is running high in Pakistani society, thanks to the controversy over the cartoons in a Danish newspaper and the American policies since 9/11 in general. It would, hence, have been a Herculean task for Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf to market Mr. Bush's trip as being in the best interests of the country.

No-win situation

Gen. Musharraf is in a no-win situation vis-à-vis the visit. Many reasons have contributed to the situation. The growing India-U.S. relationship compounds his difficulties.

At home, it is not just the public that is agitated over the perceived anti-Muslim policies of the Bush administration. The mainstream Opposition as well as the religious parties in the country have their own set of complaints against the Bush Government. The Opposition is peeved that the Bush Government is patronising a military ruler at the cost of democracy. Washington's continued silence on the issue is an annoying point for the two former Prime Ministers, Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif.

The religious parties, nursing a grouse against Gen. Musharraf for his u-turn on Afghanistan on orders from Washington, accuse him of fighting a second proxy war on behalf of the U.S. (the first in Afghanistan from 1979 to 89). They see an opportunity in the anti-West public mood on the cartoons issue. In the last few days, the religious parties have been in the forefront of anti-U.S. protests.

For all its praise for Pakistan's role in the fight against terrorism, Washington continues to doubt Islamabad's seriousness in taking on the fundamentalists.

Gen. Musharraf and his managers had created hype that Mr. Bush would help resolve the Kashmir dispute. The U.S. President's comments before beginning his South Asia journey that he would "encourage" both India and Pakistan to find a solution was cited as proof of a new initiative. But then he also said that he would "push" Pakistan to close all terrorist training camps on its side. In diplomatic parlance, you "encourage" only when you cannot "push."

With senior officials in the Bush regime having firmly ruled out a civilian nuclear cooperation deal with Pakistan on the lines of that with India, Gen. Musharraf is hoping at least for some trade concessions from Washington. In a lighter vein, it is being said that Pakistan would get its BIT (Business Investment Treaty) during the Bush visit.

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