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After Vaiko's crossover

The contest for Tamil Nadu's May 2006 Assembly election has taken a startling turn with Vaiko's Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam reversing its announced decision to stay in the Democratic Progressive Alliance headed by M. Karunanidhi and walking over to Chief Minister Jayalalithaa's camp. Does this mean the unravelling of a mighty alliance that swept all before it only 22 months ago? Or will it, as Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam leaders have claimed, ease the tensions within the DPA and give it just the "breathing space" and peace of mind Mr. Vaiko's Hamlet-like states of indecision denied it for some months? The electoral record provides some, although not too much guidance. Since its founding in 1994, the MDMK has fared extremely poorly in the two State Assembly elections (1996 and 2001) it contested more or less on its own strength: it is yet to win an Assembly seat and its independent strength, concentrated in southern Tamil Nadu, seems to hover around five per cent of the popular vote. On the other hand, it has scored well, as a small part of major alliances, in the last three of the four Lok Sabha elections it contested (1996, 1998, 1999, and 2004). The MDMK leader seemed to be on a personal high after he emerged from 19 months of incarceration under the Prevention of Terrorism Act for verbally supporting the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. But with both victim and the head of the Government that jailed and prosecuted him dramatically putting that chapter behind them, his opponents will have a field day reminding the electorate of Mr. Vaiko's high-voltage campaign against Ms. Jayalalithaa and speculating on the considerations that took him into her camp. How will all this play out over the next two months?

Much water has flowed down the Cauvery, the Palar, the Ponnaiyar, the Pennar, the Vaigai, and the Tamiraparani since the DPA took all 39 Lok Sabha seats in Tamil Nadu on the strength of a popular vote share of 57.40 per cent. Even if the victory of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in the two subsequent Assembly by-elections is considered not very significant, there have been several political indications that ground realities have changed. Chief Minister Jayalalithaa, who has apparently drawn lessons from a total debacle, has systematically rolled back or reversed policies and actions that were unpopular or perceived to be so. The restoration of the original free power scheme for farmers; the lowering of power tariffs and bus fares; the withdrawal of cases against journalists; dropping punitive action against government employees; restoring and even enhancing their benefits; and scrapping the controversial anti-conversion legislation — these are some of the major steps taken in the wake of the 14th general election. If conventional arithmetical assumptions can be made on a template of established or indicated vote shares for various parties, the DPA would seem to have an edge — even after the exit of the MDMK's `five per cent.' However, in the 1980 Assembly and 1998 Lok Sabha contests, such calculations were upset by something resembling chemistry (so much so that, in 1998, even exit polls went completely wrong). Will it be arithmetic or chemistry on May 8? It may be too soon to tell but what seems guaranteed is a tough and interesting contest, which may turn out to be a watershed in Tamil Nadu's political history. We must hope this election will revolve round issues that matter for the all-round development of the State and its place in the Indian sun — and for the welfare of the masses of its people.

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