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Dealing with Hamas

Hamas does not appear to be in any hurry to re-examine its policy towards Israel. It is more than a month since this Islamist party won a historic victory in elections to the Palestinian parliament. Its spokesmen insist it will not abandon armed resistance so long as the Zionist state continues to occupy the territory captured in the 1967 war. From a short-term Hamas perspective, such a reiteration of the hard line makes sense. With elections to the Knesset scheduled for late March, it is possible Israelis may choose a Prime Minister who is averse to negotiations. While the incumbent and front runner, Ehud Olmert, intends to pursue a policy of unilateral withdrawal from the occupied territories, his rival, Binyamin Netanyahu, refuses to consider any concessions. The Palestinian Prime Minister-designate, Ismail Haniya, cannot be faulted for deciding not to show his hand until he knows the identity of his main interlocutor. The question is whether Hamas will soften its stance, if Mr. Olmert wins and shows a willingness to restart negotiations. Palestinian Islamists are ideologically opposed to the existence of the Zionist state. They believe Israel was forced out of the Gaza Strip because it could not withstand their armed resistance. These factors might work against Hamas changing course. On the other hand, Mr. Haniya and associates are being pressed by the Palestinian Authority President, Mahmoud Abbas, and by some external actors to give up the armed struggle, recognise Israel, and endorse the agreements forged during the Oslo processes.

Hamas has offered to observe a permanent truce if Israel withdraws from the occupied territories, releases Palestinian prisoners, and allows refugees to return. There seems to be little chance that Israel will withdraw from all parts of the West Bank or let refugees resettle within its borders. Towards the end of the Oslo round of negotiations, the Palestinians (then led by Fatah) showed some signs of flexibility on these two points. While Hamas is not likely to come round easily, it should take note of recent opinion polls that show that 84 per cent of Palestinians, including 60 per cent of its own voters, favour a resumption of negotiations. Further, there will be considerable external pressure on the government Mr. Haniya will form to pursue a moderate course. Israel has withheld the taxes and customs duties it is obliged to pass on to the Palestinian Authority. The United States and the European Union are likely to cut off aid on the ground that they cannot provide funds to an administrative entity run by a `terrorist' outfit. It is clearly unwise to push Hamas into a corner but Israel and its allies might be hoping that the pre-emptive sanctions will create a situation in which President Abbas can use his constitutional powers to dismiss the Haniya government. This gamble can be disastrous, especially if it triggers an open clash between Hamas and Fatah.

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