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Low-intensity war in Balochistan

"Don't push us," President Pervez Musharraf warned in January last year, after an attack by Baloch insurgents on a gas refinery in Sui disrupted steel and fertiliser production across Pakistan for more than a month. "It isn't the 1970s when you could hit and run and hide in the mountains. This time you won't even know what hit you." A year on, it is becoming clear the Baloch war is not unfolding in line with General Musharraf's script. A wave of attacks on the Loti and Pir Koh gasfields last month damaged at least six wells and several pipelines, forcing the closure of production for several days and hitting supplies to the towns of Multan and Bahawalpur. Power transmission systems, railway lines, and even the provincial optic-fibre network have been targets of sabotage. Pakistan's armed forces have sought to contain the escalating violence with air strikes and artillery bombardment, which have killed dozens of civilians. Baloch forces have fought back with considerable success, using weapons pumped into the region by the United States during the anti-Soviet jihad in Afghanistan. General Musharraf's regime, however, seems determined not to concede the Baloch tribes their principal demand — a greater share of revenues from the region's gasfields. It believes that, aside from the loss of face, such a deal will strengthen irredentist movements in Pakistan.

Should the fighting drag on, there will be costs for the entire region. It might prove impossible, for example, to build the pipelines from Iran and Afghanistan that are needed to meet India's long-term energy requirements. What is going on in Balochistan offers not a little illumination on the perils of subverting democracy. Ever since Pakistan persuaded the Khan of Kalat to join its territories by the simple expedient of having two combat jets strafe his palace, Balochistan has seen nothing resembling popular rule. During the early decades of independence, the Pakistan state propped up autocratic tribal chieftains who shared its interest in stifling the growth of democratic voices. In 1973, soon after a provincial government opposed to President Zulfikar Ali Bhutto's regime took power, it was dismissed. War broke out. Led by the left-wing Balochi People's Liberation Front and Balochi Students' Organisation, some 10,000 guerrillas took on six divisions of the Pakistan Army until an accommodation was reached in 1978. Increasing gas production brought new prosperity to some in Balochistan but it remained one of Pakistan's most backward regions. General Musharraf's regime sought to contain the discontent by foisting the Islamist Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal government on Balochistan's peoples in 2002. This sparked off fighting that has now escalated into a costly low-intensity war. General Musharraf is right: we no longer live in the 1970s. Too many of South Asia's leaders seem unable to appreciate that the dictum applies to them — not just to the people they rule.

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