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How to prevent natural disasters

Y.E.A. Raj and R. Asokan

Integration of risk assessments stressed

The theme for the World Meteorological Day-2006 celebrated on March 23 is "Preventing and mitigating natural disasters". The title has been chosen to highlight that weather, climate and water-related hazards, such as cyclones, floods, extreme temperature, drought, famine, avalanches and landslides, constitute 90 per cent of natural hazards. It also brings into focus the role played by the National Weather Services (NWS) in preventing, preparing and mitigating such disasters.

In 1992-2001, natural disasters worldwide were linked to over 6,22,000 deaths, affecting over 2 billion people and causing economic losses to the tune of $446 billion. Over the last several decades, the economic impact of the natural disasters has increased.

While it may not be possible to avoid these hazards, they can be prevented from becoming disasters through integration of risk assessments and early warning with prevention and mitigation measures. A reliable early warning system is essential for disaster preparedness. The NWS identify and monitor potential hazards and issue warnings. Implementing a plan for dealing with an emergency involves government departments and agencies at every level. Such a national plan comprises mitigation phase, which involves identifying the vulnerability of every part of the country to particular type of hazards; the preparedness phase, aimed at educating the citizens about the nature of hazards; and the response phase, under which the measures developed during the previous phases are implemented. The recovery phase comprises the steps taken after the event to repair the damage and reconstruct communities.

Now to focus on India, which is vulnerable to most of the natural hazards listed earlier. On an average, 2.1 severe cyclonic storms strike the east and west coasts every year, some of them causing destruction owing to gale force winds, torrential rain and storm surge. Since 1993, India has been affected by many disastrous events.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is the NWS for India and is fully equipped and geared to provide early warning of any type of weather-related disaster. Cyclone warning is one of the major activities of the IMD. The warnings are issued in several stages and disseminated through different types of communication channels. However in respect of small-scale and short-lived disastrous weather events such as local severe storms, tornadoes and very heavy rain over a small area, the warning lead time could be a few hours to less than a day.

At present, there are no scientific techniques to predict a seismological disastrous event such as earthquake, though its occurrence, epicentre and intensity can be accurately recorded. The data thus collected over a long period has been used in defining zones based on seismic risk. Tsunami is another natural hazard that provides only a shorter lead time to issue warnings. It should be possible to create a tsunami warning system for the Indian coast by establishing an independent ocean observation network or by joining an already established international set-up, such as the Indian Ocean Observing System. Hazards based on extremes of weather appear to have of late increased in frequency over India.

Most vulnerable

With its population getting close to the 110-crore mark, India is more vulnerable to natural disasters. Practices such as strict observance of building code and development rules framed in accordance with seismic zoning, keeping construction activities 500 metres away from the tide level over coastal regions, not encroaching upon river streams, canals and lakes to provide for natural drainage, would help to prevent disasters. But now this may sound utopian. In such a scenario, besides the NWS, national authorities, scientific communities, non-governmental organisations, the private sector, the media and the public, all have a role to play and the capacity to contribute to preventing and mitigating natural disasters.

(The authors are Directors,

Regional Meteorological

Centre, Chennai.)

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