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No breaking the deadlock

With ministry-making running into serious difficulty, Iraq's political leaders have sought to break the impasse by setting up a National Security Council that will formulate broad policies on security and economic issues. The hope is that the 19-member Council, which will represent all the major political formations, will be able to draw the different sects and ethnic groups into the decision-making process. This plan is not likely to work. While the President and Prime Minister will be members of the Council, they will be free to override its collective decisions that affect their spheres of authority. Since there is no constitutional provision for creating such a body, non-official members can have no real authority over the executive branch. The Council seats will be allotted to the major formations in proportion to their strength in parliament. As its decision will not be binding unless they are supported by two-thirds of its members, it is likely to be no more than a replica of the legislature. In a situation where the major parties refuse to arrive at a minimal accommodation, this new institutional arrangement is not likely to help break the deadlock. The overall political situation has deteriorated over the past few weeks since alignments have begun to change. The Kurd-Shia coalition that was once touted as a stabilising force has started to come apart.

The Kurd, Sunni, and secular parties, which together control 140 seats in the 275-member parliament, have refused to accept the Shia coalition's nominee for the post of Prime Minister. This amounts to a veto since a government cannot take office unless it has the support of at least two-thirds of the members of the House. While the Shia coalition, called the United Iraqi Accord, has a parliamentary strength of 130, nearly half that number cannot be counted as supporters of the nominee, Ibrahim al Jaafari. When the Accord's parliamentarians met a few weeks ago to choose their prime ministerial candidate, Mr. Jaafari defeated his rival by a single vote. The wafer-thin margin exposed the rifts within a coalition that has three major components. Mr. Jaafari, who has served for almost a year as interim Prime Minister, has the backing of his own Dawa'a party and the group led by firebrand cleric Moqtada al Sadr. But the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (the Accord's third major constituent) apparently agrees with non-Shia politicians that Mr. Jaafari's performance in office has been below par. The Sunni and secular parties were infuriated by the government's failure to control Mr. Sadr's militias during the recent sectarian strife. The Kurds were incensed when the interim Prime Minister visited Turkey against their wishes. In turn, the Shia masses have taken umbrage at the suggestion of the President and Kurd leader, Jalal Talabani, that they reconsider their choice.

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