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A useful dialogue

The visit of Prime Minister Khaleda Zia of Bangladesh to India was important for several reasons. This was the first visit by a Bangladesh head of government to New Delhi in nine years. It gave both sides an opportunity to address, at a political level, the several issues that trouble their relations. Although Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Zia in Dhaka in November 2005 on the sidelines of the summit of the South Asian Association for Regional Co-operation, this was the first focussed discussion of issues of mutual concern. Since 2001, when a coalition led by Prime Minister Zia's Bangladesh National Party came to power, relations between India and her eastern neighbour have been dogged by mistrust. Dhaka's perception clearly was that India preferred to do business with the Awami League led by Sheikh Hasina. It did not help that India-Bangladesh trade was heavily weighted against the smaller country. Dhaka was unhappy over New Delhi's reluctance to give its exports duty free access. Further, given that it has to share the waters of many rivers with its big neighbour, the lower riparian state seemed jittery about Indian plans for interlinking rivers. India, for its part, has been concerned over illegal immigration across the porous border and militant groups from the Northeast finding sanctuary in Bangladesh with the connivance of elements in its army and intelligence apparatus. Recently, possible linkages between jihadist groups operating in the two countries have begun to worry Indian security agencies.

The Khaleda visit has not led to a breakthrough but there are indications of progress. A revised version of the 1980 trade agreement acknowledges the importance of expanding trade. The two neighbours have agreed to make "mutually beneficial arrangements...[for the] passage of goods between places in one country through the territory of the other." Does this mean Dhaka will now make available a land route to connect West Bengal to the States of the Northeast, which it has so far refused to do? The two sides have also agreed to tackle terrorism "jointly," although it is not clear if this means joint operations on the India-Bangladesh border. The recent arrest of two leaders of the Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen, who allegedly masterminded several terror strikes in Bangladesh, has helped Dhaka send out the message that it takes the threat of Islamist extremism seriously. The visit has shown that undoing years of neglect in bilateral ties is not going to be easy. The key to this may lie in addressing the imbalance in economic ties; this hinges on the willingness of the bigger and more developed neighbour to take generous and constructive steps. With general elections in Bangladesh likely by year-end and a regime change quite conceivable, India will watch its neighbour's volatile political situation with keen interest and be prepared for either outcome.

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