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Ukraine — split by elections

Vladimir Radyuhin

The inconclusive vote creates new opportunities for Russia and the West to influence political processes in the second biggest Soviet republic.

THE RESULTS of the March 26 parliamentary poll in Ukraine published on Friday showed that the country remains politically split along geographic and ethnic lines into the Russian-speaking south-east and the Europe-oriented north-west.

The split was first highlighted in the presidential election at the end of 2004, when the Russian-speaking south-east voted for the Russia-backed Viktor Yanukovich, then Prime Minister, while the north-west supported the pro-Western former Prime Minister, Viktor Yushchenko. Mr. Yanukovich won the runoff, but was stripped of his victory by court following massive street protests against alleged vote rigging. A re-vote held on a high wave of the heady "orange revolution" gave victory to Mr. Yushchenko with 52 per cent of the vote, but also confirmed the split: the new President received massive support in the north-west, while the south-east solidly voted for Mr. Yanukovich, who got 44 per cent.

In the election to Parliament last month Mr. Yanukovich took revenge, benefiting from a steep economic decline, infighting, and corruption scandals that hit the "orange" government. His party came in first with over 32 per cent of the vote, against less than 14 per cent for Mr. Yushchenko's Our Ukraine. The geographical pattern of the vote was exactly the same as in 2004, even though the "orange" support in the north-west this time was divided between the President and his estranged ally, the former Prime Minister, Yulia Timoshenko, who finished second with over 22 per cent of the vote.

The current divisions in Ukraine run along historical fault lines. The country's south-eastern provinces were part of Russia and then the Soviet Union for 350 years, while western Ukraine for long stretches of history was under the rule of Austro-Hungary and Poland.

"Orange" policies of the past year have done little to narrow the split. Mr. Yushchenko's goal of joining NATO and the European Union met with enthusiastic response in the west, but was rejected in the south-east, which is focussed on closer ties with Russia. Kiev's aggressive policy of imposing the Ukrainian language on the Russian-speaking provinces has created new tensions.

With no party winning a majority in Parliament in the March poll, President Yushchenko has a chance to try and reunite the country by forming a coalition with Mr. Yanukovich's Party of the Regions. On the other hand, if he recreates an "orange" coalition with Ms. Timoshenko, this could fossilise Ukraine's split. Both choices are bad for Mr. Yushchenko. An alliance with his political opponent, Mr. Yanukovich, can destroy Mr. Yushchenko's "orange revolution" credentials among his pro-Western constituencies. A coalition with Ms. Timoshenko, a far more charismatic and determined leader, whom he fired from the post of Prime Minister last September in a bitter fight for power, is likely to eclipse Mr. Yushchenko altogether. What makes his dilemma particularly hard is that after the March vote Ukraine becomes a parliamentary, rather than a presidential republic, with Parliament and the Prime Minister gaining more powers than the President.

Ukraine's inconclusive vote creates new opportunities for Russia and the West to influence political processes in the second biggest Soviet republic.

Drawing lessons from its heavy-handed involvement in Ukraine's 2004 presidential election on the side of Mr. Yanukovich, Russia this time stayed out of the fray and expressed readiness to cooperate with any government in Kiev. At the same time, Moscow bluntly told Kiev it would not pay for Ukraine's drift towards NATO and the EU with cheap natural gas supplies. Three months ahead of the parliamentary poll, Russia nearly doubled the price of its gas for Ukraine, and reserved the right for further price hikes.

For its part, the West is pushing for an "orange" coalition in Ukraine that will pursue Euro-Atlantic integration even though this course offers few economic or political prospects. Ukraine's economy depends on Russian energy supplies and the Russian market for its exports. Moreover, 80 per cent of the country's GDP is generated in the pro-Russian south-east. The West keeps dangling before Kiev the carrot of membership in the EU, but tells it to wait for at least 15 to 20 years. Instead, the United States is working hard to drag Ukraine into NATO, promising this would facilitate Kiev's EU bid. It is this kind of policy that can deepen the political split of Ukraine, where a strong majority of the population is opposed to NATO membership.

Russia is deeply suspicious of the West's motives in Ukraine in the light of the role NATO and the U.S. played in the break-up of Yugoslavia and Serbia. Many Russian politicians and analysts are convinced the West is tearing up Serbia, Russia's traditional Slavic ally, in order to cut off Russia from Europe. They fear the West has similar goals in Ukraine.

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