The Hindu : Front Page : Congress close to majority in Assam

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Tuesday, Apr 11, 2006

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Front Page

Congress close to majority in Assam

Sanjay Kumar, Rajeeva L. Karandikar, Sandhya Goswami and Yogendra Yadav

The Hindu-CNN-IBN Poll suggests a fragmented verdict

NEW DELHI: Assam appears headed for an Assembly election verdict in which no single party or combination would have a majority in the newly elected Assembly. However, the Congress appears to be close to forming a government.

A divided Opposition and a moderately positive record of governance have helped the Congress forge ahead of its rivals. But a substantial drop in its popularity may stop it well short of the majority mark. The AGP has managed to recover from its split and staged something of a comeback, but not enough to catch up with the Congress even if the BJP were to join hands with it.

The Hindu-CNN-IBN Poll suggests that this could be one of the most fragmented verdicts ever to come from Assam. The poll was conducted in 260 locations spread over 65 Assembly constituencies. A total of 6,194 electors of the State were interviewed in this poll. A post-poll survey was conducted for the areas that went to the polls on April 3. The constituencies in the second phase of elections were covered with an exit poll. (See methodology box for more details on Page 12)

If the poll findings are translated in terms of seats, the Congress is likely to win between 52 and 60 seats, short of the majority mark of 64. The party is likely to lose more than 10 seats from its tally of 71 in the last elections. The AGP is likely to improve its tally a little from the 20 seats it won last time to end up with 25 to 31 this time. The BJP is also likely to improve slightly and is likely to end up with 10 to 15 seats. But even if the AGP and the BJP were to join hands, they are far short of the numbers for government formation.

The election is expected to throw up an unprecedented number of `others' in the new Assembly. The number could be between 28 and 35, or more. They could become pivotal players in the formation of a new government in Assam. The `others' here include many small formations like the two factions of the BPPF, the ASDC, the CPI (ML), the minority front AUDF and, of course, a number of Independents. The Congress has seats adjustment with one faction of the BPPF. Many others among these small players may not be unwilling to cut a deal with the Congress. Therefore the ruling party remains a front-runner in government formation.

Clear lead in round 1

The poll suggests that the Congress established a clear, almost comfortable lead in the first round of elections held mainly in upper Assam and the Barak Valley. But indications from the second round of polling held in the constituencies of lower Assam suggest the picture is fragmented. Many constituencies witnessed multi-polar contests that are very difficult to predict. The Opposition and the smaller players are expected to gain a majority of seats in the second round of the polls. This has stopped the Congress' march to a clear majority.

The Congress is expected to get about 31 per cent votes, a big loss of about 9 percentage points since the last Assembly elections.

The AGP is expected to add 1 point to its vote share to reach 22 per cent this time. The BJP's estimated vote share of about 11 per cent is a substantial decline from the votes it managed to get in the last Lok Sabha elections. For a party wanting to emerge as the second force in Assam politics, this is bad news.

More than one-third of the voters have opted for smaller political parties and Independents. This marks a major shift in Assam's politics.

With this election the process of political fragmentation and ethnic polarisation that began in Assam in 1985 seems to have reached its culmination.

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