The Hindu : Front Page : Left Democratic Front set for big win in Kerala

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Thursday, Apr 13, 2006

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Left Democratic Front set for big win in Kerala

Sanjay Kumar, Rajeeva Karandikar, Gopa Kumar and Yogendra Yadav

The Hindu-CNN-IBN Poll predicts 93-103 seats for LDF

New Delhi : The Left Democratic Front (LDF) appears headed for a big victory in the Kerala Assembly elections. The findings of The Hindu-CNN-IBN Poll conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) suggest that the trend witnessed in the State in the Lok Sabha elections of 2004 has not changed. The Left swept the polls then, winning 18 out of the 20 Lok Sabha seats. Since then the LDF's lead over the ruling United Democratic Front (UDF) has dropped from eight to about six percentage points, but that is enough to ensure a comprehensive victory for the LDF. If the trend holds till polling day, the LDF could secure its biggest electoral victory since 1967.

If elections had been held in the first week of April, when this survey was conducted, the LDF would have got 49 per cent votes, compared to 43 per cent in favour of the Congress-led UDF. A lead of six percentage points for the winning party would be considered modest in any other State, but it is huge by Kerala standards. Ever since the two-coalition competition started in 1977, no winning alliance has had more than a six-percentage point lead in the Assembly elections. Most elections have been decided by a gap of two to four percentage points between the UDF and the LDF. Such a big margin also puts paid to the BJP's hopes of emerging as a pivotal player by transferring its votes or winning a few seats in a tied election. There are no indications of the BJP breaking through its vote share of around 5 per cent.

If the LDF succeeds in holding on to the lead till May 3, the last day of polling in the three-phase elections to the State Assembly, it could win between 93 to 103 seats, leaving the UDF with just 39-45 seats. If that happens, it would be the UDF's worst-ever performance in any Assembly election. The last time the LDF scored such a huge victory over the UDF was in the 1980 Assembly elections when the LDF secured a six-point lead in votes to win 93 seats against only 46 for the UDF. The LDF may surpass this performance and its tally may touch three digits.

Two occasions

In Kerala's electoral history there are only two occasions any alliance has secured more than 100 seats: in 1977 the then UDF (including the CPI and some other current allies of the LDF) won 111 seats and in 1967 the then Left-led UF (besides the Communist parties, it included the Muslim League, currently a UDF partner, and some other parties) won 117 seats.

Politically aware State

The LDF's lead does not appear vulnerable to short term changes between now and the elections. In this highly politically aware and conscious state, 96 per cent of the voters know about the elections and 76 per cent say they have already made up their mind. As many as 83 per cent of those who `voted' for the LDF in this survey say they are absolutely sure of voting the same way in the elections. The corresponding figure is 77 per cent among those who favoured the UDF in this survey.

The survey was carried out among 4,377 electors spread across 184 locations in 46 Assembly constituencies in the State. A survey of this kind is subject to one per cent standard error. Taking the extreme possibility of survey error into account, the LDF still leads over the UDF by a comfortable margin by Kerala standards. Unless something dramatic happens between now and the days of election, it is the LDF's turn to take over the reins of power in Kerala.

(Watch the CNN-IBN-The Hindu special show on Tamil Nadu at 10 p.m. on Thursday, only on CNN-IBN)

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