Kerala - Kozhikode   

BJP role crucial in Kozhikode

Staff Reporter

BJP show will make or mar the prospects of both fronts

Kozhikode: Although the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) does not harbour any big hopes for the coming Assembly elections in Kozhikode district, it will play a decisive role in making or marring the prospects of several candidates of both the United Democratic Front (UDF) and the Left Democratic Front (LDF).

Chances of the candidates of the fronts getting elected will solely depend upon the performance of the BJP candidates in at least 10 of the 12 Assembly segments. Constituency-wise figures for the last three elections show that the BJP has a formidable presence in the Kozhikode-I, Kozhikode-II, Koyilandy, Balussery, Koduvally, Beypore and Kunnamangalam segments. An analysis of the votes obtained by the party also reveals a simple arithmetic - the more votes the BJP candidates garner, the more the chances are of the UDF candidates losing the elections.

Except in Vadakara and Koduvally, where the LDF and UDF candidates respectively won the 2001 Assembly elections, the margin of votes the victors got against their nearest opponents was less than 10,000 votes. In Kozhikode-II, Meppayur, Koyilandy, Perambra, Balussery, Beypore and Kunnamangalam Assembly segments, the BJP candidates registered more votes than the victory margin of the either the LDF or the UDF nominees in the 2001 elections. Incidentally, when the LDF swept the polls in the 1996 elections, the BJP demonstrated a better performance in these constituencies, except Vadakara. Then the UDF candidates could win only in two of the front's traditional constituencies - Koduvally and Thiruvambady - indicating that the increase in votes of the BJP candidates also tilted the balance in favour of the LDF candidates.

In the coming elections, the BJP has nominated Mahila Morcha State general secretary Sumati Haridas for the prestigious Kozhikode-I constituency. Here, DYFI State president A. Pradeepkumar is taking on seasoned politician and Minister for Forests A. Sujanapal. In the 2001 elections, Mr. Sujanapal captured the seat from the CPI(M), defeating its candidate, P. Sathidevi, by a margin of 8,377 votes. However in the 1996 elections, he lost to Communist party of India(Marxist) (CPI-M) candidate, M. Dasan, by a margin of over 3,000 votes. Then the BJP candidate polled over 9,500 votes.

Another crucial Assembly segment is the Kozhikode-II constituency, where Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) nominee T.P.M. Zahir is seeking re-election. In the previous elections, he won by a slender margin of 787 votes against CPI(M) candidate Elamaram Kareem. The BJP, which mustered 7,345 and 10,782 votes in the 2001 and 1996 elections respectively, has given the ticket to its district secretary, P. Velayudan. In the 1996 elections, Elamaram Kareem won handsomely against his nearest opponent by a margin of over 8,500 votes.

In the keenly watched Koduvally constituency, where Democratic Indira Congress(Karunakaran) (DIC-K) State president K. Muraleedharan is in the fray, the BJP is a force to reckon with. The IUML candidate C. Mamootty won the 2001 elections by a huge margin of nearly 17,000 votes, but C. Moyinkutty of the IUML won by a wafer-thin margin of 94 votes in the 1996 elections. In the 1991 elections too, the IUML's performance was not very impressive, even though the UDF won the elections. Its candidate got 398 votes more than the LDF candidate.

. Kunnamangalam and Beypore are the constituencies where the BJP can boast of a good support from the electorate when compared to that of the other 10 constituencies.

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