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Kerala headed Left, decisively

In politically volatile Kerala, where two to four per cent of the voters can make the difference between victory and defeat, the Left Democratic Front led by the Communist Party of India (Marxist) is poised to return to power with a decisive majority. The finding of The Hindu-CNN-IBN pre-election survey conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies is that the lead of six percentage points currently established by the LDF could yield anything between 93 and 103 seats in the 140-member Assembly in the three-phase election beginning April 22. The United Democratic Front managed to reduce the gap by about two percentage points since the May 2004 Lok Sabha election (in which the LDF won 18 of the 20 Kerala seats), but this is not going to make any material difference to the outcome. With the Democratic Indira Congress (Karunakaran) joining the UDF after failing to find another home, the two fronts go into this election with much the same strengths and weaknesses as in 2004. For the UDF, the DIC(K) is both an asset and a liability. While the breakaway group might help the UDF retain the traditional Congress vote base of upper castes and minorities, this entails a high cost: the breakaway group of the Congress is a potentially disruptive element in the ruling combine. All the reasons that prompted DIC(K) founder K. Karunakaran to quit the Congress remain unchanged; the factional wars fought within the Congress in Kerala during the months leading to the formation of the DIC(K) will now be waged within the UDF. The infighting in the Congress weakened the UDF in 2004, and any infighting on account of the entry of the DIC(K) cannot have a significantly different effect now.

Just weeks after entering the UDF, Mr. Karunakaran created confusion within the front by refusing to acknowledge Chief Minister Oommen Chandy as an automatic choice to lead the government in the event of the UDF being voted back to power. The image of Mr. Chandy as an assertive leader of the ruling coalition took a beating. Although DIC(K) president K. Muraleedharan tried to retrieve the situation by stating that it was for the Congress high command, not the coalition partners, to decide on the next Chief Minister if the UDF got a majority, the damage was done. By contrast, the CPI (M) leader, V.S. Achuthanandan, who dramatically overcame initial opposition within the party, is now an undisputed claimant to the post of Chief Minister if the LDF wins the election. In The Hindu-CNN-IBN Poll, Mr. Achuthanandan was the preferred choice for 36 per cent of those polled, ahead of Mr. Chandy and A.K. Antony, who were at 25 per cent each. Significantly, Mr. Achuthanandan's popularity climbed to 72 per cent among traditional LDF supporters. With the UDF a divided house, the LDF is likely to improve its position in the days to come.

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