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Next stop, constituent assembly

The unambiguous message India's special envoy, Karan Singh, must convey to King Gyanendra in Kathmandu is this: "Your time is up. Either step back and allow the political parties to lead the country towards a constituent assembly, which might yet salvage a ceremonial role for the monarchy. Or be swept away by the rising tide of public protest." Such a message will be factually accurate, morally incontrovertible, and politically sound. The mass upsurge against the autocratic and increasingly hated monarchy will soon enter its third week. Every day brings with it an ever-greater sense of popular determination to see the struggle for democracy through to the end. The partnership between the seven-party alliance (SPA) and the Nepalese Maoists has held firm. The security forces seem in no mood to precipitate matters by opening fire on peaceful civilians. Ominously for the King, the one country that tried to block political unity between the SPA and the Maoists appears to have bowed to reality; the United States ambassador in Kathmandu, James Moriarty, has now begun to invoke images of an ignominious Saigon-type evacuation for Gyanendra. New Delhi is no longer firmly wedded to the `two-pillar' theory that has underpinned its Nepal policy for nearly two decades; it now appears ready to endorse whatever arrangement emerges from a democratically elected constituent assembly.

The Indian Government has played its cards on Nepal quietly and, in the main, judiciously. Its condemnation of Gyanendra's February 1, 2005 putsch, the arms embargo, and the quiet encouragement of contacts between the SPA and the Maoists have all helped Nepali democratic forces reach a decisive stage in the struggle. What New Delhi must not do at this critical juncture is compromise the democratic goodwill it has built up by endorsing some kind of political half-way house. Returning to the status quo ante is no longer an option for Nepal; nor will it do for the King to ask the SPA to nominate an interim Prime Minister. Any interim arrangement in which the King surrenders power to the political parties must explicitly aim to implement the commitment to a constituent assembly. A key development of the past year has been the establishment of confidence between the parties and the Maoists — built on the understanding that a permanent solution to the nation's political crisis requires new constitutional arrangements. India facilitated the establishment of a working relationship between the two principal political players in Nepal without getting directly involved. While there is merit in New Delhi maintaining a studied distance from the rough and tackle of this process, the demand for progressive Indian facilitation is likely to grow as the struggle for democracy enters a more mature stage and the pressures on the working partnership between the Maoists and the SPA increase.

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