KOCHI: The India Vision-A. C. Nielson Exit Poll conducted during the first phase of polling for the Kerala Assembly elections held on Saturday has predicted a clear majority for the Left Democratic Front (LDF) over the ruling United Democratic Front (UDF).

The exit poll, conducted by the leading global marketing research agency, foretells that the LDF would garner 49.5 per cent votes, while the UDF would get only 40.8 per cent votes. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is expected to get 3.6 per cent of votes while all the others in the fray will get 6.2 per cent.

Seat-wise this would mean that the LDF will get 39 of the 59 seats which went to the polls on Saturday, while the UDF will get only 19 seats. One seat will go to any of the other candidates.

The exit poll marks a swing of nine per cent in favour of the LDF.

At the same time, the UDF will lose 6.9 per cent votes. The BJP will also lose 0.5 per cent votes this time. Others, or the independent candidates, will lose 1.6 per cent votes.

In the 2001 Assembly elections, the UDF had got 45 out of 59 seats. This is expected to come down to 19 this time, which means, the UDF will lose 26 seats in the first phase of the polling itself.

On the other hand, the LDF, which could get only 14 seats in 2001, is expected to capture 39 seats — an increase of 25 seats.

The LDF can get a clear majority if it can repeat the performance of the last Assembly polls in the central and northern parts of the State.

Clear upper hand

The LDF has a clear upper hand both in rural and urban areas as well as among the male and female voters.

In the urban areas, 45.7 per cent of people are supporting the LDF, while only 40.1 per cent support the UDF. In the rural areas, the LDF has the support of 50.2 per cent of voters, while the UDF has the support of 40.9 per cent.

Among female voters, 46 per cent support LDF while the UDF has the support of 45.2 per cent women. Among male voters, 51.7 per cent support the LDF while only 38 per cent support the UDF.

In the central Kerala, the LDF has the support of 47.4 per cent voters, while the UDF has only 40.3 per cent of voters with them. In southern Kerala, the LDF has a support base of 51.4 per cent, while 41.8 per cent support the UDF.

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