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Tuesday, Apr 25, 2006

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National

AIADMK won't find it easy

The ruling party's traditional edge in the south is likely to be offset by the strength of the DMK's allies

Photo: K. Ganesan

AIADMK election graffiti in Periyakulam.

Suresh Nambath

Periyakulam

The predominantly rural southern districts of Tamil Nadu have remained a stronghold of the All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) since 1977, yielding ground to the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) only in 1996 and 2004. Madurai, Theni, Dindigul and Sivaganga districts are dominated by Thevars and Dalits, who have traditionally voted AIADMK. This Assembly election, there is no wave, but the AIADMK might still struggle to retain its seats.

One reason the AIADMK will find the going difficult is the nature of the alliances. All major parties barring the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) are in the opposite camp. The MDMK is strong in several southern constituencies, but the electoral arithmetic is still stacked against the AIADMK alliance.

The AIADMK commands a much larger vote share than the DMK in the south, but the Congress more than matches the MDMK. Besides, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) will add to the DMK kitty in Madurai and other urban areas. Thus, the AIADMK's lead over the DMK is likely to be neutralised by the Congress and the Left parties.

The AIADMK cannot afford to rely entirely on its previously built-up vote bank. In 2004, the DMK made significant gains in all places other than Andipatti, the Assembly constituency of Chief Minister Jayalalithaa in the Periyakulam parliamentary constituency of Theni district.

The last two years saw the AIADMK recover some lost ground, but the situation is nowhere near the golden period of the AIADMK in the late 1970s and 1980s. While there is no discernible anti-incumbency factor at work, neither is there any enthusiastic support for the ruling party.

Some of those who moved away have returned to the AIADMK after the rollback measures. The restoration of free power and revocation of the ban on animal sacrifice in temples blunted the anger against the AIADMK Government.

Besides the restoration of the benefits, the AIADMK is projecting the free bicycle scheme and farmers' security scheme as achievements. Its functionaries are also banking on those who benefited from the "payouts" made by party bigwigs such as T.T.V. Dinakaran, Rajya Sabha member and former Lok Sabha representative of Periyakulam. People in villages are used to receiving such "payouts" each time they invite the bigwig for a social or religious function.

However, not all voters are impressed by such give-aways. "If the government gives us something, we can take it with pride as our right. But if a party leader gives us something, we can only consider it as alms-giving," says Arunasekar of Periyakulam.

While most farmers welcome the security scheme, some feel the benefits did not reach them during the drought. "What is the use of feeding us when our stomachs are full," asks Abdul Karim.

But the AIADMK holds one distinct advantage over the DMK in the region, notorious for caste flare-ups. The Dalits, especially the Pallars, are in conflict with the Thevars, especially the Kallars, in many areas. In the last five years, the districts have been relatively quiet with no major caste clashes. Lakshmanan, a farm hand in Kadamalaikundu in Andipatti, says the credit should go to the AIADMK Government.

In Bodinayakanur, which witnessed caste clashes in 1989, Murugan, a load worker, believes only the AIADMK can ensure peace. "Whenever the DMK is in power, there is trouble," he says.

The AIADMK commands the support of both the Thevars and the Dalits in several areas. It was only in the late 1990s, that Dalit parties such as the Puthiya Tamizhagam managed to wean away some sections of the Pallars. The pro-Thevar tag of the AIADMK is post-1991. Indeed, other than the proximity of the Sasikalaa family to Ms. Jayalalithaa, and the disproportionate influence some leaders of the community enjoy in the party, there is little else to characterise the AIADMK as pro-Thevar. With the Puthiya Tamizhagam losing clout, the AIADMK will not suffer much on account of the traditional Thevar-Dalit conflict.

The AIADMK's alliance with the Dalit Panthers, which counts more Pariars than Pallars among its supporters, does not seem to have alienated Thevar community leaders, whose animosity is towards Puthiya Tamzhigam, a party mostly consisting of Pallars.

Thus, the AIADMK's close identification with the Thevars, which earlier threatened to break up its support base, is no longer an issue. The influence of the Sasikalaa family is a non-issue unlike in 1996.

Some traditional AIADMK supporters in areas such as Usilampatti, Sedapatti and Cumbum, who voted against it in 2004, still nurse grievances against the Government. The dissatisfaction cuts across caste divides. The AIADMK might still pick up seats in the southern districts, but the region can no longer be called its bastion.

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