NEW DELHI: India Meteorological Department on Monday forecast that the South-West Monsoon from June to September would be below normal this year: it could be 93 per cent of the long period average (LPA) plus or minus five per cent. (The plus or minus five per cent is the margin of error for the mathematical model used for the forecast).

Releasing the forecast at a press conference here, IMD Director-General Bhukan Lal, said the estimates also suggested that there was a probability of 22 per cent for the monsoon to be deficient, or below 90 per cent of the LPA.

"The rainfall could be below normal, at 93 per cent plus or minus five per cent. There is also a 22 per cent possibility for it to be deficient, below 90 per cent of LPA. But, there is nothing to be alarmed. Data collected so far show that the overall rainfall could at worst dip down to 85 per cent of LPA. Not below that," he said.

Asked about the possibility of the development of the El Nino phenomenon, he said there appeared to be no problem on that front. The situation in regard to El Nino was quite comfortable now and the predictions by models run by international agencies suggest that it would remain so in the coming months.

Noting that the El Nino problem arose only when the sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific region rose beyond the normal by 0.5 degrees Celsius and above, he said that presently, it was near the normal level. Of the 28 agencies across the world that kept a tab on the phenomenon, only two had predicted that it could rise beyond the normal by over 0.5 degrees Celsius in the coming months. The rest had forecast that though the temperature could rise beyond the normal, it would remain below the threshold.

"Given the predictions, there seems to be no possibility of El Nino problem developing. The IMD would, however, keep a close watch on the situation," he said. In 2004, when drought-like conditions prevailed in several parts of the country, the main reason was lack of rainfall in July. This was caused by an expected development of warming in the equatorial central Pacific region, leading to a sudden development of the El Nino phenomenon.

Forecast

The IMD, he said, would come out with a forecast in the middle of next month on when the monsoon was expected to break over Kerala, the first entry point of the system in the country.

This would be followed by a forecast in the last week of June or the first week of July on how the rainfall would be in July, which is the most essential in terms of agriculture.

At that point, IMD would also come out with a set of four forecasts for the four broad homogenous regions of the country: the north-west, the north-east, Central India and the south peninsula.

In addition, it would release an update for the nation-wide forecast issued on Monday. The forecast issued on Monday was based on eight parameters and data updated to March. The update would be based on these plus two more parameters, for which data would be available only by June end.

Printer friendly page  
Send this article to Friends by E-Mail