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A challenge for democratic institutions

The victory of Italy's centre-left coalition in the recent general election, confirmed by the Interior Ministry after incumbent Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi alleged fraud in the counting of the ballot, has been validated further by the Republic's Supreme Court. But even before it has assumed office, the alliance is faced with an immediate test of its leadership in the form of the impending election of a successor to the country's President, Carlo Azeglio Ciampi, whose term ends soon. The choice of Head of State is the collective responsibility of the Italian Parliament (comprising the House of Deputies and the Senate) and representatives from the regions. But it is highly unlikely that the rival camps will agree on a common candidate, given Berlusconi's hostile reaction to the outcome in the poll, which has varied from an outright rejection of the popular mandate to description of the scenario as one where there are neither winners nor losers and to an offer of a grand coalition government with Mr. Prodi's alliance on the ground that the opposing platforms won an almost equal share of the ballot. The idea of a grand coalition is mischievous as Mr. Prodi's alliance has an undisputed majority in both the Houses, a scenario most unlike in Germany after the 2005 election. Mr. Ciampi has announced that since his seven-year term in office ends in May, his successor, rather than he, should discharge the constitutionally ordained responsibility of swearing in the new Prime Minister. Such a stance may be morally upright from the standpoint of Mr. Ciampi. But the current fluid situation leaves the floor open for fresh manoeuvring between the two coalitions as the Italian Presidency empowers the incumbent to veto legislation.

The centre-right is only too aware of the significance of the President's role, given that the centre-left enjoys a meagre lead of two seats in the upper house of Parliament. Mr. Berlusconi is also waiting to exploit latent differences that may surface among his opponents, especially on economic policy, to upstage the new government. But there is no serious challenge to the election of the centre-left nominee, as the coalition can have its way in the fourth round of the Presidential poll, by winning a simple majority even if it fails to obtain two-thirds of the total votes in the earlier rounds. A more pressing task ahead of the Parliament's joint session on April 28, however, is for the centre-left to choose its nominee from the two contenders, both former Prime Ministers, one from the Democrats of the Left party, the largest partner in the coalition, and another a socialist. Italy is known for the stability of its democracy, despite the notorious instability of the country's post-war governments. However, this democratic foundation cannot be taken for granted, particularly when the lust for power transcends all reasonable limits as witnessed in the Berlusconi era and in the days after.

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