The Hindu : National : Nothing is ruled out in Tamil Nadu

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Sunday, Apr 30, 2006

National

National

Nothing is ruled out in Tamil Nadu

The only thing that can be said with a measure of certainty is that — barring a late swing — no one party is likely to get a majority on its own, say Yogendra Yadav and Sanjay Kumar

Graphics: Surjit

Tamil Nadu is where the real excitement is as far as this round of Assembly elections go. A week ahead of polling day, even the broad contours of the outcome are unclear. Three weeks ago, before the nominations began, The Hindu-CNN-IBN Poll conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) had declared this election "too close to call." News reports and polls since then have not clearly indicated which way the wind is blowing. Unlike the other States, one cannot rule out any outcome: a clear victory for either the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam or the All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam or even a tie. This election could change the pattern of government formation and policy orientation in the State.

This is not how things appeared six months ago. Everyone thought that the election would be a replay, in reverse, of that in 2001. In opposition, AIADMK chief Jayalalithaa had put together a grand alliance that defeated the sitting DMK-TMC combine. This time, the DMK is in the opposition and has sewn up a grand alliance. Six months ago, every political observer expected the DMK to sweep the polls, just as it did in the Lok Sabha elections of 2004.

It was not an unreasonable assumption. Tamil Nadu is one of the few States that has never had an unclear verdict. Ever since the present boundaries of the State were fixed in 1957, it has seen decisive verdicts. The Congress won the general elections in 1957 and 1962 with a clear majority. Thereafter, it has been one of the two Dravidian parties. The winning party was usually in alliance with the Congress (or breakaway factions such as the Tamil Maanila Congress). But it is important to remember that one single party has always enjoyed a clear majority in the Assembly. The winning alliance could easily win a three-fourths majority or even up to 90 per cent of the seats.

The alliance pattern changed radically in 1998, but the tradition of electoral sweeps continued. Defeated and humiliated by the DMK-TMC combine in 1996, Ms. Jayalalithaa created a new rainbow coalition by admitting many small parties. The success of her coalition forced the DMK to play the same game. The winning formula in the Lok Sabha elections of 1998, 1999 and 2004 and the Assembly elections of 2001 was very simple: whichever party had the bigger alliance won. The Pattali Makkal Katchi switched sides regularly and was a part of every winning alliance.

Going by that logic, the DMK should have had an irreversible lead in this election. Its alliance in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections was formidable. It included the re-united Congress (after the TMC's merger), the two Communist parties, the PMK and the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam. The AIADMK had only the Bharatiya Janata Party for a partner. DMK president M. Karunanidhi has succeeded in keeping this broad alliance more or less intact, except for the MDMK, which replaced the BJP as the AIADMK's main ally.

Smaller parties

Both alliances have added some smaller parties to boost their strength. While the DMK has allied with a faction of the Muslim League, the AIADMK has roped in many small groups: the Dalit Panthers of India, a faction of the Forward Bloc, the Janata Dal (Secular), a faction of the INTUC, the Indian National League and another faction of the Muslim League. If we add up the votes secured by the DMK and its allies in the Lok Sabha elections, it comes to 51.6 per cent. The corresponding figure for the AIADMK and the MDMK is only 35.7 per cent. Most of the AIADMK's smaller allies did not contest the Lok Sabha elections; so it is not easy to ascertain their strength. But even if this vote was taken as two to three per cent of the popular vote, the alliance share comes to about 38 per cent, way behind the DMK alliance.

This formal arithmetic is based on two assumptions: the allies retain more or less the same proportion of votes and the popularity level of the DMK and the AIADMK remain what it was in 2004. We know that both these assumptions are not true. Therefore, the formal arithmetic of alliances is not a good guide to this election.

The assumption that the major alliance partners have a fixed proportion of votes they can carry to any alliance was true between 1998 and 2001. It is not true any more. Some of them have suffered a sharp erosion in their vote base. The Congress and the TMC got more than nine per cent of the vote in 2001; in 2004, the re-united Congress got more than 14 per cent. But The Hindu-CNN-IBN Poll found that the real strength of the Congress was no more than 4.5 per cent. Similarly, the PMK's real strength is about two per cent, the six to seven per cent of vote it has received is thanks to alliances. The Communist parties bring in less than two per cent of the vote on their own. Similarly, the MDMK does not contribute much to the AIADMK. Its own vote share is less than two per cent, much lower than the four to five per cent it won in previous elections. Taking everything into account, it seems that the DMK's alliance gives it an advantage of four to five percentage points over the AIADMK. It is still a significant advantage, but not an unbridgeable lead.

The second assumption is also no longer valid. The chemistry in the State is not what it was in 2004. The Hindu-CNN-IBN Poll analysed this in considerable detail. The AIADMK Government's and Ms. Jayalalithaa's personal ratings have improved dramatically. Her Government is credited with effective tsunami and flood relief measures and better governance.

When compared to the previous DMK Government, the AIADMK Government was preferred, though only by a small margin. More importantly, Ms. Jayalalithaa was preferred over Mr. Karunanidhi by more voters and was seen to be a better administrator, more pro-poor and more effective in controlling corruption. Mr. Karunanidhi's weakness for his son and family members seemed a political liability in the public eye.

The Hindu-CNN-IBN Poll estimated that by the first week of April, when the poll was conducted, the arithmetical advantage of the DMK had already been overtaken by the AIADMK's turnaround in popularity. The poll estimated that the AIADMK combine stood at 46 per cent and the DMK one at 44 per cent. The AIADMK's turnaround has been confirmed by polls conducted over the last two years by the School of Media Studies, Loyola College. These surveys — conducted in November 2004, April-May 2005, January 2006 and April 2006 — have shown a steady rise in the share of popular votes for the AIADMK and a corresponding decline in the popularity of the DMK-led alliance.

The real question is: will the two-point lead for the AIADMK alliance reported by The Hindu hold till May 8? If it does and the scenario projected by The Hindu-CNN-IBN Poll comes true, the AIADMK could scrape through by winning a bare majority of 118 seats, the thinnest ever in the State. If the Poll caught the AIADMK in the middle of an upswing and if it continued to gain since then, its victory margin could be more comfortable. A two-point swing since then will give the AIADMK alliance 157 seats and a four-point gain could turn it into a familiar sweep. On the other hand, if the DMK has gained since early April, as per the latest survey by the Loyola College team, the DMK alliance could gain a majority. There is a third scenario involving major gains for Vijayakant's Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam. But that too would favour the AIADMK, for the DMDK is gaining more at the expense of the DMK and its allies than the AIADMK. The DMDK may get a significant proportion of votes but is unlikely to win many seats, thus helping the AIADMK secure a majority.

Keen competition

The final outcome may or may not be close. But the crucial thing is that it is perceived to be so. This has activated a very keen competition for every tiny slice of votes. Party manifestos have become a point of discussion. Parties are competing to offer something more to the voters. The DMK has also joined the populist plank normally associated with the AIADMK. The Hindu-CNN-IBN survey showed that the alliances retained their traditional social profile: the AIADMK was stronger among women and the poor, besides the Thevars and a section of the Dalits. The DMK had a clear lead among the minorities, Vanniyars, Gounders and Pallars.

In Tamil Nadu, the social equation is bound up with the regional patterns. The DMK's hope rests on the two regions in the northern plains where the PMK and the DMK have their strongholds. The AIADMK has always done better in the west and the south and would hope to counter the hold of national parties in the deep south with the MDMK's votes.

The last decade has seen a lot of upheaval, and both alliances have a substantial base in every single region. Similarly, the big urban-rural divide has nearly disappeared from the State's politics. The DMK still does a little better in the urban areas and the AIADMK in the rural areas, but the differences have narrowed considerably.

No matter what the final outcome, one thing is almost certain. Barring a late swing, it is highly unlikely that any one party will get a clear majority on its own. The logic of electoral alliances that has unfolded since 1998 will find its logical culmination in the formation of a coalition government in the State. If the DMDK gets a significant share of votes this time and decides to join an alliance the next time, coalitions could become a regular phenomenon. That could change the face of Tamil Nadu politics.

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