The Hindu : Front Page : LDF headed for a landslide in Kerala

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Thursday, May 04, 2006

Front Page

Front Page

LDF headed for a landslide in Kerala

Sanjay Kumar, Rajeeva L. Karandikar, Gopa Kumar and Yogendra Yadav

The Hindu-CNN-IBN Exit Poll predicts between 107 and 117 seats for Left alliance

NEW DELHI: The Left Democratic Front (LDF) in Kerala is headed for a record performance in the Assembly elections that concluded on Wednesday. The Hindu-CNN-IBN Poll, conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) after the votes were cast, leaves little doubt about who will form the next government. The only questions are: what will be the margin of the LDF victory and if it will break the existing record?

The post-poll survey shows that the LDF added to the lead it enjoyed at the beginning of the campaign. The pre-poll survey, conducted by the CSDS in the first week of April, showed that the LDF had a six-percentage point lead over the United Democratic Front. The post-poll survey indicates that the LDF added another four percentage points to it by the polling day.

An electoral tsunami

Taking all three phases into account, the LDF is expected to get 51 per cent of the votes as compared to 41 by the UDF. The Bharatiya Janata Party is down by one percentage point from the five per cent it got in the last Assembly elections. Seen in terms of a swing from the last Assembly elections, the LDF is likely to gain eight percentage points at the expense of the UDF. In Kerala, where a swing of one to two points is enough to turn the tide, this is nothing short of an electoral tsunami.

Translated into seats, it would mean the number of MLAs representing the LDF in the 140-member Assembly is likely to be in three digits — between 107 and 117. The last time any alliance touched three digits in the State was in the 1977 elections. The then `United Front,' which included the CPI, the RSP and the Praja Socialist Party, besides the Congress, won 111 seats. The all-time record, of course, is that of the Left-supported front — coincidentally also called the `United Front' — in the 1967 elections. It won 117 seats in the then 133-member Assembly. The Muslim League was then a partner of this front led by the CPI(M).

When the ballots are counted on May 11, the LDF would be looking to match or break these records. Even if it does not do so, the LDF performance is likely to be the best ever by any alliance since the stable two-coalition system came into existence in 1980.

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