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Washington still needs Islamabad

Simon Tisdall

WHEN AMERICA'S world changed after 9/11, President Pervez Musharraf adapted faster than most. He severed Pakistan's official links with the Taliban, backed the U.S. war on terror, and set about taming lawless tribal areas abutting the Afghan border. Gen. Musharraf became George W. Bush's favouriteMuslim.

But Washington's memories are short and, five years on, the relationship grows rocky. The U.S. has echoed Afghan claims that Pakistan lacks zeal in combating cross-border operations by "Talibanised" extremists in Waziristan and elsewhere. Officials mutter about "inconsistent performance" and "poor execution" in catching Al-Qaeda militants.

An unannounced U.S. air strike inside Pakistan in January left Gen. Musharraf looking weak (and 18 people dead). Differences have developed over neighbouring Iran's nuclear activities and a gas pipeline venture with Teheran.

Pakistani officials have, in turn, accused India and, by implication, the U.S., of stirring up Balochi separatists. They complain Washington does not fully appreciate the risks Gen. Musharraf is running and the army's losses in Waziristan. Last week, Foreign Secretary Riaz Khan said "changing the mindset" of extremists was a long-term task. "It doesn't help making Pakistan the whipping boy."

Mr. Bush's recent visit to Islamabad, following his nuclear deal with arch-rival India, made matters worse. His clumsy call for free elections next year added insult to injury. "Was there blowback after the Bush visit? Yes, no question," an informed Western official said. But there was no rupture, he added. Washington's regional game plan still centred on Gen. Musharraf and no replacement was yet in sight. Pakistan's leader, lacking a strong political base and beset by intractable problems, needed U.S. support at almost any price.

"From the Americans' perspective, this is a highly unstable country. The situation in Waziristan is tipping in favour of the Taliban. There's trouble in Balochistan, in Kashmir, in Karachi. There's the religious parties ... Half the population of this country is virulently anti-American and it's growing," the official said. "And then there is Musharraf, sitting on top of this volcano. He's pretty indispensable. We're only a bullet away from significant instability. But I'm not sure we have anyone else."

Despite public U.S. pressure for free elections, Western diplomats in Islamabad predict wider U.S. strategic and security considerations will privately trump concerns about Pakistan's dysfunctional democracy. "We're not abandoning the democratic agenda," a diplomat said.

"But drugs, terrorism, instability, these are the issues that have a direct international impact."It would be left to Britain and the EU to worry about ballot-rigging. — © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2006

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