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The election results and coalition politics

K.V. Prasad

How will the strong showing by the Left impact on the functioning of the United Progressive Alliance Government at the Centre?

THE RESULTS of the five Assembly elections show the parties supporting and in coalition with the Congress at the Centre have done well. In West Bengal, the Left Front has not only won an emphatic victory, it has stopped the Congress from making any gains; in Kerala, the Left Democratic Front has ousted the United Democratic front Government led by the Congress. In Tamil Nadu, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-led alliance, which includes the Congress, has swept to power.

What impact will this have on the coalition at the Centre? Will the Left become more vocal in its opposition to foreign direct investment or privatisation? The broad view is that while the United Progressive Alliance has itself been strengthened, the results will have a definite impact on its functioning in the days to come.

The verdict, the Left parties have said, points to the people endorsing the approach of supporting a secular formation at the Centre despite serious differences over the economic and foreign policies being pursued by the Manmohan Singh Government. Congress leader Margaret Alva has lamented: the Left has taken credit for whatever good was done by the Centre and that the Congress has had to pick up the bill for all that went wrong.

The Left leaders maintain that in the past two years they have protested against government policy only when they felt the Centre was deviating from the agreed Common Minimum Programme. This voice is bound to become louder. After all, whatever the Left has been doing seems to have paid handsome electoral dividends and there is no reason for it to change tactics.

Prakash Karat, general secretary of the Communist Party of India (Marxist), made this point clearly when he said the results had added to the overall strength of the Left parties and their role in national politics. "We look forward to increased intervention by the Left," was how he summed it up.

There are already known areas of disagreement. The Left parties have repeatedly expressed the view that the Congress and its Ministers continue to do what they wish to, ignoring their advice. The charge is that behind the façade of `consultations' with the Left, which in fact are nothing more than "mere informing," the Congress pushes forward economic policies that are not in the interest of the people. Perhaps the Congress will have to learn to genuinely consult its allies and supporting parties on crucial policy issues. Besides economic issues such as opening up of retail trade and related matters, foreign policy has been a sore point. The Left parties have a strong view that the Manmohan Singh Government is increasingly moving towards Washington. The Iran nuclear issue and the approach towards Palestine are cases in point.

These were issues the Left parties had raised during the election campaign. The impressive mandate is certain to encourage the Left to sharpen its attack on the Centre, at least on these issues. The Left leaders can be expected to bring pressure on the Manmohan Singh Government to alter some of these policies if not change them altogether.

The form and fashion of the intervention will be honed in the coming days. The Left parties had earlier this year decided to carry out an assessment of the working of the UPA Government. This would be done now against the comforting backdrop that in its own bastion the elections have been fought and won handsomely.

The last time the relations between the UPA and the Left parties came under severe strain was when they stopped participating in the Coordination Committee meetings. When they did return to the table, the four supporting Left parties — the Communist Party of India (Marxist), the CPI, the Revolutionary Socialist Party, and the All India Forward Bloc — distanced themselves from the UPA.

There is no immediate threat to the UPA Government but the Left parties are expected to make it clear that they cannot be taken for granted. They are aware that while the larger objective of keeping the Bharatiya Janata Party out is intact, the Congress-led formation cannot test the limits of the patience of partners and supporters. Even in Assam, where the BJP made a concerted attempt to considerably improve its score and political presence, the result would hardly create a ripple of discomfort in the UPA ranks. And in Kerala and West Bengal, despite an all-out political battle between the Left and the Congress, the BJP could not get the toehold it was desperately seeking.

As CPI general secretary A.B. Bardhan put it: "We hope that after this the Congress would listen more to us [the Left] and people's voice with humility." This appears to be a gentle way of reminding the Congress leadership that it needs to convey to those in the Government that the current arrangement was a coalition arrangement and unilateral decisions are just not on.

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