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Besieged by problems but secure

On its second anniversary, the United Progressive Alliance Government is every bit the regime under siege, with trouble on all fronts — worrying volatility in a market believed to be healthily ascendant, mounting anti-quota protests, resignation of two members of the prestigious National Knowledge Commission, renewed terror strikes in Jammu and Kashmir, pressure from the Left and other allies on such matters as quota implementation, fuel price hike, and the worsening agrarian crisis. It does not necessarily follow from this coincidental pile-up of bad news that the Government's well-being or stability is under threat. Yet after the recent round of Assembly elections, these issues have acquired a new urgency; if earlier Manmohan Singh enjoyed some leeway in a ruling alliance dominated by the Congress and propped up by the Left, that space stands considerably reduced by the altered power balance at the Centre. It is more than evident that the Left sweep in West Bengal and Kerala and the triumph of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-led Democratic Progressive Alliance in Tamil Nadu have strengthened the advocates of social and economic equity to the disadvantage of those pushing for quicker and greater liberalisation. Consider the impact of this on the quota controversy. Faced with growing street protests as well as dissension within the knowledge panel — not to mention a public row between two Cabinet Ministers — the Government initially proposed a close and detailed look at the modalities before announcing a decision.

In the end, the Prime Minister and the Congress gave in to the demand for an immediate announcement to demonstrate the commitment to reservations. Tuesday's meeting between the UPA Coordination Committee and the Left resolved to implement the proposed 27 per cent quota for Other Backward Classes from the next academic year and get a legislation passed by Parliament in the monsoon session. Given this victory, it stands to reason that the Left and the Congress' UPA partners will ask for more from the Government — especially in the key areas of foreign policy and economy. An immediate indication of things to come was the Left's trenchant critique of the Manmohan Singh regime's two-year performance; among other things, the joint Left statement accused the Government of pursuing privatisation and a pro-U.S. foreign policy at the cost of the "pro-people measures" outlined in the National Common Minimum Programme. It is a measure of how pressured the Government feels that Murli Deora, Union Minister for Petroleum, has publicly disfavoured increasing LPG and kerosene prices. On the positive side, the Government is safer than ever before with the coalition arithmetic firming up in its favour. Not only do the Congress and the BJP command a substantial majority in the House precluding the emergence of a non-Congress, non-BJP alternative at the Centre, the DMK is locked in a long-term relationship with the Congress after the Tamil Nadu elections.

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