The Hindu : Opinion / News Analysis : Battleground next: who is where in U.P.

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Friday, May 26, 2006

Opinion

Opinion - News Analysis

Battleground next: who is where in U.P.

Vidya Subrahmaniam

The BSP is on the up and up. The SP is down but fighting back. The Congress is waiting for Rahul Gandhi. And the BJP is without a hope.

PHOTOS: BHAGYA PRAKASH K. AND AP.

THE MAIN CONTENDERS: Mayawati and Mulayam Singh.

WITH VICTORIES in Assam, Tamil Nadu, and Pondicherry, topped by the first family's bravura performance in Rae Bareli, life is suddenly brimming with possibilities at the Congress headquarters. In the eyes of Congresspersons, Sonia Gandhi's record-smashing win is all the sweeter for having been plotted and pulled off by son Rahul — a double whammy believed to portend grander things to come, especially in battleground Uttar Pradesh.

Time then for a reality check in India's hottest political State, scheduled to rev into election-time action in February 2007. Consider the players in the four-cornered race. The Bahujan Samaj Party: strong as ever among Dalits, expanding among the formerly scorned forward castes, and best prepared for election. The Samajwadi Party: hit by low morale, incumbency, and at the receiving end over poor law and order; yet tenacious, resourceful, commanding a loyal core vote, and, very crucially, at the helm of power in Lucknow. The Bharatiya Janata Party: tired, jaded, distrusted, and pushing rath yatras that have become a joke even among its fiercest supporters. And finally, the Congress: written off till recently but drawing the first stirrings of voter interest on account of Rahul Gandhi.

That Mayawati currently leads the pack is obvious. Travelling recently in eastern Uttar Pradesh, this writer was struck by the consistency of response to the feisty Bahujan supremo. Beloved of Dalits, behenji (esteemed sister) today has an incredible fan following among substantial sections of Brahmins, Thakurs, and Vaishyas, the "manuwadi" caste groups at the core of the BSP's ideological fight. In Lucknow's secretariat, bureaucrats serving under Mr. Mulayam Singh confess to sensing the badli hawa (change in mood), though they do not quite buy the new Dalit-Brahmin bhai-bhai. Says a senior officer: "Mulayam's stock is low and law and order is in a bad way. But let us not write him off or go overboard on Mayawati. Her social engineering is pure electoral arithmetic. She knows she cannot come to power unless she adds to her Dalit base."

Perhaps so. Yet in cities as in villages, in urban markets as in kasbas, there is visible excitement around Ms. Mayawati — a fair number see her as the next Chief Minister, some think her unreliable and prone to changing tactics. But all insist she is the answer to Mr. Mulayam Singh. There are also no two opinions on her competence. From the policemen posted outside the Sankat Mochan mandir in Varanasi to the staunchest Congressman in Rae Bareli to those affected by the communal riots in Mau, everybody agrees that she provided the best administration in recent years, cracking down on crime, disciplining the bureaucracy, and moving full throttle on development.

This bit is a knockout surprise considering the larger public perception that the BSP chief ran an inefficient government, pushed exorbitant projects, and splurged money on herself. Well, meet Uttar Pradesh's new wonder woman, a terror to thugs, dreaded by the bureaucracy, and unsparing of the lazy and the inefficient.

Amazing change

The changed attitude is at its most amazing in Allahabad, once home to heartland aristocracy, among them the Nehrus, and still every bit the high seat of savarna (forward caste) clout and power. So where better to check out the gentry than in the historically famous Allahabad High Court? The most striking thing about this resplendent building is the profusion of brahminical nameplates along its imposing corridors. The Shuklas, Misras, and Pandeys along with their numerically fewer Rajput and Vaish counterparts form the cream of legal talent here. This powerful bloc once identified with the Congress but switched to the BJP swayed by Hindutva. It speaks to the BJP's appeal in these parts that that it has won every Assembly election since 1989 in Allahabad South, and since 1991 in Allahabad North. Today, any mention of the Hindutva party evokes a yawn in the legal fraternity. Rajnath Singh's rath yatra is a "washout" while the BJP is "without a hope."

So whom would the lawyers rather have as Chief Minister? "Mayawati" is the near unanimous answer. Some talk loftily of "Dalit-upper caste integration." Others cite Ms. Mayawati's "no nonsense image" and her "excellent grip on the administration," adding of course that they need her to "defeat Mulayam Singh." Yet others simply confess to wanting to be on the winning side.

"Ugte suraj ko kaun nahin pranam karta? (who does not pray to the rising sun?)" says Naresh Chandra Rajvanshi, a former chairman of the Bar Council of Uttar Pradesh, admitting to supporting the BSP because "it is coming to power." Thanks to this "farsightedness," Mr. Rajvanshi is now informally with the BSP and busy holding Vaish sammelans to mobilise support for the party among the trader class. In his well-appointed chamber, Vijay Bahadur Singh, a self-confessedly "wealthy landed Thakur with a flourishing practice" declares himself an "admirer of the new Maya." Extolling the BSP's overture to forward castes as a "revolution," Mr. Singh says: "In her earlier phase she was against upper castes because they were vicious to her. Forgetting that, she has reached out to them for which she deserves the highest praise. The way to social reform is through Dalit-upper caste unity."

The "hail Maya" voices get louder in the crowded court canteen. "It is a simple case of hamey aap ki zaroorat hai, aap ko hamari zaroorat hai (we need you, you need us)," says Upendra Misra, adding that the first priority of Allahabad's forward castes is to remove Mr. Mulayam Singh. So is that not best accomplished by the BJP, which is the natural opposite of the SP? What explains the bizarre spectacle of Brahmins such as Mr. Misra turning to their once sworn enemy for help? "But where is the BJP," asks Ramesh Chandra Misra for whom, as for others in his community, Ms. Mayawati is the only hope. Gauri Shankar Kesarwani holds that in her new, friendly avatar, Ms. Mayawati is preferable to the BJP, which "betrayed the people's trust." The views are echoed in the shopping areas; for the trading classes, already aggrieved for not finding representation in successive BJP governments, the rising crime graph is an additional irritant, which "only Mayawati" can tackle.

To what extent will a higher profile for Rahul Gandhi affect growing upper caste support for the BSP? The Gandhi name elicits the fondest of smiles among forward castes who unfailingly talk of a "magnificent" joint campaign by Sonia Gandhi and her children: "Just imagine them together. They will take U.P. by storm. Even if it is only Rahul, he will at the minimum energise the cadre." Nonetheless, few are willing to bet on a major Congress revival. The most that Mr. Kesarwani, "a Congressman at heart" expects is for the party to raise its vote share; he himself, like so many others, will "vote the BSP this time round." In other words, while forward caste voters look forward to Rahul's arrival, they would be loath to waste their votes on a party nowhere near winning this election. They would be happiest, of course, if the Congress and the BSP tied up for the election resulting in a "clean sweep" for the alliance.

So will the BSP and the Congress do the needful? History suggests that they will not. The two parties aligned in 1996 to no major advantage. The lesson the BSP drew from the exercise was that while Dalit votes are transferable, forward caste votes are not. Indeed, the BSP's "brahmin jodo abhiyan (take along the Brahmins campaign)" appears to have been born of this realisation: rather than unwisely depend on other parties to deliver the Brahmin vote, why not reach out directly to the community? Having travelled far on this path, and successfully too, Ms. Mayawati is unlikely to want to fritter away the gains through an alliance. Unless her calculation is that through the alliance she can decimate Mr. Mulayam Singh — her long-cherished dream.

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